This weekend was the first pivotal weekend of the NCAA Cross Country Docket. The key meets were the NCAA Pre-National meet, the Chile Pepper Invitational, and a glorified Guelph-Wisconsin-Oregon tri meet (OK, its proper name is the Bill Dellinger Invitational). Here were the key stories of the weekend:"Won't Get Fooled Again?"
Stanford dominated the Pre-National meet just as they did a year ago. This time, the Cardinal men did it at the front even more impressively with a 1-2-3 blanket finish in the blue race. In the process, the tree-o (had to, sorry) set the #9-11 marks of all time on the La Vern Gibson 8000m course. Team leader and individual standout Chris Derrick looked like he was loping along easily throughout, and at least for this day elected to run the whole race with his teammates Elliot Heath and Jake Riley. If you can remember back to last year, Stanford packed up early on in all of their races. That is until the NCAA meet, where Derrick let loose to run with the top contenders behind Samuel Chelanga leaving Heath, Riley, and Justin Marpole-Bird by their lonesome. Prior to the NCAA meet, Stanford had crushed Oregon in the Pac 10 and West Regional with Stanford's 2-4 runners doing exceptionally well against Oregon's Luke Puskedra, the Mercado Twins, Kenny Klotz and Matthew Centrowitz. Derrick took some blame upon himself when Heath (33 team points) struggled somewhat and Marpole-Bird (180 team points as #5 man) greatly underperformed at Nationals killing any chance for a podium finish. As a result of all of their struggles, Stanford which entered as pre-meet favorite staggered home to a disappointing tenth place finish while runner-up Oregon, who they'd Old Yellered all year, crushed them.
Now, the question for all following is: Can Stanford translate their Pre-National success into Nationals success this year? Last year, while some might have cast Derrick's decision as a serious factor it was really Stanford's second pack and guys behind Heath and Riley (their 4-7 guys) that killed them in the end. The gap from 10'th to the podium or the win was not a mild underperformance or two. This year, even if Heath and Riley run up to their capabilities and finish in the top 25, the Cardinal need to keep their #4 and #5 guys in the top 70 if intend to to compete against Oregon as well as Oklahoma State. Well, here's the bad news: Stanford's 4-5 guys ran slower and placed lower than they did at Pre-Nationals last year. The other bad news: guys who finish in the 15-20 range at Pre Nats aren't necessarily championship level #4-5 guys on balance.
How did I determine that? I took the 15-20 finishers of last year's White Race and the 15-22 from the Blue Race(2 guys didn't make it) and averaged out their team finishes. The average for those 10 was 75 team points. To avoid bias and misleading figures, even if you throw out some of the highest scorers it's pretty clear that the expected range for a finisher at that finishing spot in Pre-Nationals is in the range of 55-70 team points, and that's removing the guys who bomb. If you gave the Stanford trio the benefit of the doubt and a combined 35 points for them, their 4-5 guys, even when running at the same level as pre-nats, could inflate the team score into the mid 100s or even lower, which is good but very well may not be good enough. Making the picture worse is that the guys running in the #4-7 slots are the same as last year (Miles Untereinner, Ben Johnson...) who could only muster at best finishes in the 100'th place range. So, as you can see I'm not buying Stanford as the favorite yet even on a day they run up to their Pre-Nationals performance. Do not be fooled by their dominant team score vis-a-vis other teams, as the other real contenders were missing from the meet entirely or running incomplete lineups.
Defending Champs Plead the Fifth
Speaking of those real contenders, what about the team that won it just a year ago- how bout dem (Oklahoma State) Cowboys? With last year's 10'th place finisher at Nationals, Colby Lowe, leading the way at the tape, the Cowboys had an excellent 1-4 showing (perhaps the NFL team is copying the wrong sport?) at the Chile Pepper Invitational. German Fernandez appears to be back near his best, and newcomer Thomas Farrell so far has proved capable of filling the void that Ryan Vail and John Kosgei left. For now, all of the Cowboys really need is that elusive fifth man to step up. Last year, an ailing Fernandez was cast in that role and an excellent top 4 combined with him to win the title. This year, Jonathan Stublauski is the most likely guy to step into that position after finishing 14'th and about 30 seconds adrift of his team's top 4. Stublauski is no slouch- he won the Big 12 1500 title outdoors, and he finished a so-so 123'rd last year at Nationals. Obviously he'll need to improve significantly to keep his team in the hunt. A strong sign is that in the Chile Pepper 10K he was able to run within 30 seconds of Auburn's Ben Cheruiyot, last year's 15'th place finisher at Nationals. If Stublauski can do that at Nationals, and the top 4 carry out their part of the bargain, the Cowboys will be nearly impossible to beat. The Cowboys can probably afford a finish in the 60'th-100'th place range if their top 4 runs up to its capabilities.
Badgers Cluster Ducks
Out West, Oregon followed the script of their two rivals and pulled off a finish line sweep of their own at the Dellinger Invitational. Despite their 1-2-3 finish, the Ducks only won by 9 in the tri meet-style race as Wisconsin put 4 inside of Oregon's 4'th finisher. Notably, the Badgers' #1 or #2 runner Mohammed Ahmed was not racing (he has competed well this year). If he had finished in the pack with his teammates, Oregon would have suffered the unthinkable- losing despite a 1-2-3 finish. After this meet, I'm very high on both of these teams. Wisconsin's depth is impressive and an 8 second 1-4 spread is incredible for a pack that begins only 4 seconds off of Luke Puskedra, and Matthew Centrowitz. It is a young, somewhat untested group, so whether they can pack up and run in the 25-60 range at Nationals over 10K is of course not guaranteed. As for Oregon, their top 3 like Stanford's looks stellar. More importantly, it is proven on the national stage with all three having finishing pretty high at the NCAA's at least twice before. After that top 3, the picture does get a little murky, but let's not forget that AJ Acosta is a pretty talented guy for a fourth runner. Although, Acosta has never shown particularly well at Cross Country Nationals, his last outdoor season saw him achieve breakthroughs in the 1500 as well as, perhaps more importantly, in 3000m steeplechase and 5,000. Acosta's impressive triple at the Conference meet in those 3 events showed considerable strength and top 25 potential at Nationals. Obviously, his 12'th place finish at Dellinger doesn't hint at that, but it is quite early for a guy who had an extended summer in Europe. Oregon's remaining scoring spots and squad will have to be filled by unproven guys like Parker Stinson and Chris Kwiatkowski as unfortunately for the Ducks, Diego Mercado and Kenny Klotz aren't waiting in the wings. That being said, outside of maybe Mark Wetmore, there is probably no one you'd rather have pulling the strings on Championship Monday than Vin Lananna.
Grade: Incomplete
The last team I give a legitimate shot for the team title is the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. At face value, I look like a crock giving a team that finished some 149 points behind Stanford any chance of beating them or the others. However, the NAU outfit that took their lumps on Saturday is vastly different than the one that could toe the line at Nationals. Individual championship contender David McNeill (Commonwealth Games) as well as a top 10 finisher from last year, Jordan Chipangama, did not race. If he's not badly dinged up, this team could very well be formidable. Adding that powerful duo to Diego Estrada and Ahmed Osman, the 5'th and 13'th place finishers at Pre-Nats, respectively forms a competitive top 4. Like the other teams above, the #5 man will be crucial. Also missing from the NAU squad was last year's 59'th finisher at Nationals, Ben Ashkettle. Yet another guy, who if he can be thrown into the mix will make this team a true contender. Personally, I don't know the status of Chipangama and Ashkettle as they have not raced this year (unlike McNeill).
As for the other teams, the Arkansas, Colorados and the Oklahomas strike me as nice teams, but sorely lacking the firepower to beat any of the four mentioned above.
Obscure Fact of the Week: Right now, the state of Oklahoma boasts the #1 team in the BCS Football standings (OU) and the #14 team as well (OKST). Meanwhile, in Cross Country once the new polls come out they will boast 2 top 10 Cross Country teams and Oklahoma State could be elevated to #1. Oklahoma: Fall Sport Hotbed.
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