"Five" Guys

After a few indoor races and some action down-under, there is no longer any question to what is now the most competitive and deep event in the world. While watching Bernard Lagat capture what was dubbed the dream 5000 at the Melbourne Track Classic, a few things struck me.

First of all, I didn't even think calling it a "dream" event was fanciful or inappropriate. In the race were 4 sub 13 minute athletes including medalists (Bernard Lagat, Craig Mottram), a near-medalist (Matt Tegenkamp- narrowly fourth by hundredths in Osaka), and a sub 27 minute 10K runner who was one of the most consistent 5K runners on the planet the year before (Chris Solinsky). It was a stacked field, and certainly as the race finished a few could dream without too much delusion of finishing on the podium at the World Championships some five months later in Daegu, South Korea.

Second of all, there was the fact that a 5,000 race taking place with only the aforementioned American athletes (Lagat, Teg, Solinsky) could with a straight face dub itself a "dream" race. Even more striking is that there are two more similar-caliber American athletes (Galen Rupp and Dathan Ritzenheim) whose presence were not even required for a dream race. Certainly, the American crop of 5000 runners has come a long way since the days when Bob Kennedy was toiling at it alone.

And the last thing that struck me was I would not be shocked if only one athlete in the race, Bernard Lagat, even cracked the top eight of the World Championships 5000 meter final in five months. The event has it all - experience, youth, worldwide representation- and even with the IAAF restriction of 3 athletes per country (plus one for the defending champion's country), the event should go at least 10 deep with sub 13 minute runners.

Here is a breakdown of an event with an embarrassment of riches, so to speak:

Ethiopian Team-
Medal Threats: (Kenenisa Bekele- bye, Tariku Bekele, Yenew Alamirew, Dejen Gebremeskel, Imane Merga)
Breakdown: If Kenenisa Bekele is healthy like he was in his undefeated( at 5000+) championship years of 2008 and 2009, it'd be crazy to bet against him. If the pace is not to his liking, Bekele has closed the last 1600 of Championship 5,000 in a mind-blowing three minutes and fifty seven seconds. If it's fast, well he's the world record holder and his strength is unrivaled by anyone running 5000. The best hope against him is recent years is that he opts to only run the 10,000, or that he is not 100% healthy. Tariku Bekele had the best season of his career last year with 2 wins at the Diamond League 5,000, a 12:53.97 clocking at 5000, and two winning 7:28 3000 clockings. As a sidenote, he might have good genes. Yenew Alamirew is a young, raw athlete who ran a stunning 7:27 3000 indoors a few weeks back. He's raced in high-quality fields just twice after being discovered late last year by super-agent Jos Hermens. In those two races, he has won with ease running sub 7:29 for the 3000 in both competitions. Dejen Gebremeskel on the other hand arrived midway through last year's Diamond League meets and ran 12:53.56 and finished second twice in loaded fields. He recently won the 3K at the New Balance Indoor Grand Prix in Boston over Mo Farah despite having to run 2990 meters with only one shoe. Last, but certainly not least is Imane Merga who had the most consistent Diamond League campaign at 5000 of everyone last year. His collection of races included two wins and seven top 3 finishes. He ran 12:53 twice and beat almost every major name at least twice head to head.
Whatever four that makes it out of this group is so good that a 1-4 Ethiopian sweep is possible. The Ethiopian Athletics Federation has some discretion over selections, which could be to their advantage as athletes will feel less pressure to peak for a selection race.

Kenyan Team-
(Apparent) Medal Threats: (Eliud Kipchoge, Josphat Menjo, Vincent Chepkok, Isaiah Koech, Mark Kiptoo, Edwin Soi, Vincent Yator)
Breakdown: Predicting the three that will represent Kenya is a difficult piece of guesswork, but one guy who I expect to make the squad with the most certainty is experienced veteran and multi-time medalist Eliud Kipchoge. He started out last year with a strong 12:51 in the first Diamond League Meet before experiencing a bout with Malaria and some subsequent ups-and-downs. He has already run a sparkling 12:55 5000 indoors. Some of the other names here are very intriguing. I chronicled the solo exploits of Josphat Menjo last year, and it should be interesting to see what he can run with the aid of pacemakers and competition. As Menjo was out setting world leading times in obscure meets, 2008 Olympic bronze medalist Edwin Soi won an ultra-competitive African Championships 5000 over a host of world-class Ethiopians and Kenyans. This year's revelation appears to be Isaiah Koech who ran the #4 All-Time indoor 5000 with a 12:53 in his first major race against senior competition. His age is listed at 17. As I wrote here this may be a somewhat misleading statistic, but the time instantly makes him a star and contender for a medal. The main thing that could threaten the prospects of any of these athletes is Kenya's national championships are held at altitude and are cutthroat, which can often lead to surprising omissions from the national team as well as a premature peak in fitness for the athletes that do make the squad.

Best of the Rest (of the World)
Medal Threats/Names: (Bernard Lagat USA, Chris Solinsky USA, James Kwalia QAT, Mo Farah GBR, Moses Kipsiro UGA, Matt Tegenkamp USA, Craig Mottram AUS, Ben St. Lawrence AUS, Dathan Ritzenheim USA, Galen Rupp USA)
Breakdown: The most-promising medal prospect of this group is by far Bernard Lagat who in his old age has bolstered his 5000m personal bests even as his 1500/mile abilities have waned. He has won medals in both the 1500 and 5000 the last two world championships, and has stated that he will focus his undivided attention on the 5000. His tactics remain as flawless as ever, which was exhibited in a 3k/5k double he executed with ease at the World Athletic Finals late last year. The only man to challenge Lagat during that double was Ugandan runner Moses Kipsiro, who has a silver and bronze medal to his name from the World Cross Country Championships as well as bronze from the 2007 World Championship 5000 and a 12:50 personal best. Ex-Kenyan James Kwalia has a comparable resume on the track with a bronze medal from the 2009 World Championships and a 12:54 personal best. Last year's breakout star was Chris Solinsky who shocked everyone by breaking the 27 minute barrier in the 10,000 and turning in several competitive and fast efforts at 5000 on the Diamond League circuit. Meanwhile, Briton Mo Farah had a breakthrough of his own as he won both the 10,000 and 5,000 at the European Championships and ran under 13 minutes for the first time.

Whew! That's a lot of contenders, and a lot of nice resumes. What might be the scariest and most revealing thing of all? I'm sure I missed somebody.