The Conference Championship weekend has past and here are the winners and the losers from a weekend with surprisingly few nail-biters. I'll also throw in the VFL9 team rankings.Winners of Conference Championship Weekend:
Wisconsin: In what was expected to be a hotly contested battle with the Indiana Hoosiers at the Big 10 Championships, the Badgers not only obliterated their would-be rivals, but the entire conference itself. The Badgers amazingly scored only 28 points. In dual meet format, the score would be Wisconsin 28, Big 10 29. I've been on the Badger bandwagon as a potential championship team since they ran so close to Oregon's best at Dellinger without Mohammed Ahmed, but this performance was a step above that. Landon Peacock picked up a quality win over 3K stud Andrew Bayer and still the Badgers packed in their top 4 within 10 seconds, and their top 5 within 21. Good as Peacock and the other Wisconsin top guys are, this team will go only as far as its astonishing depth and razor-thin spread can take it. I'd be surprised if anybody from the squad finishes higher than around 15'th place at Nationals. That being said if they have 4 guys in the 15'th to 40'th range and the fifth man Reed Connor can hang in the 60'th range, their score will be in the mid to low 100's- good enough to win many years.
Oklahoma State: This team just looks plain scary after they went 1-4 and tallied an unreasonable 19 points in the Big 12 Conference Championships. Here are the reasons that OK St. should be favored to repeat after this jaw-dropping display:
1. They have 3 guys who are top 10 capable at Nationals
2. Their fourth guy beat the number one runner of two legitimate top 10 teams in Colorado and Oklahoma by 8 seconds and 24 seconds, respectively
3. Their achilles heel, their fifth guy (this time) freshman Joseph Manifalasha, finished 9'th in probably the deepest conference in the country, beating Colorado's #4 and finishing less than two ticks behind Oklahoma's #1 runner
4. Need backup? Their sixth guy was only 11 seconds behind their fifth guy
This team has the highest ceiling of any in the NCAA. Yes, things could go wrong, but on a good day only Stanford could run with them through three guys, and no team could run with them through four.
Stanford: Speaking of the Cardinal, the 2010 Pac 10 meet was much like the 2009 edition. Again, Stanford demolished the Oregon Ducks and scored under 30 points. Before we get carried away, well I don't have to remind you of what happened at the big dance last year. There are a few differences between this squad and last year's one. To me, behind the constant, Chris Derrick, #2 guy Elliot Heath looks improved and more capable of taking the reins and not just following team leader Derrick's lead. In the Pac 10 race, it was him and not Derrick throwing in surges to drop Oregon athletes. Another improvement is in #3 man Jake Riley who is an upgrade over Justin Marpole-Bird or whoever was running in this last spot last year for Stanford. He certainly looks capable of a top 35 finish at Nationals. The #4 spot actually looks a bit weaker than last year, as Stanford's low score of 25 is masked by the fact that the Pac 10 has considerably less depth than in recent years (thanks to tracktalk's Orthostice for pointing this out). Stanford's 5'th guy ran almost exactly the same as last year's fifth. This leads to the main difference from last year, which is the closeness of the sixth and seventh runners. The Stanford second pack looks more capable than this year, which could allow them to overcome a subpar performance from one of the top 3 or either/both the #4 or #5 guy. Can this second pack, bolstered by greater numbers and another year of experience, get it done in the clutch at NCAA's? I'm dubious, but this team certainly looks formidable right now.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks put their entire top 5 in the top 10 in an excellent performance at the SEC Championships. I'm somewhat cynical on this team because they are very unproven at the 10K distance and at the national meet. That being said, this was certainly their best performance of the year and running 1-5 within shouting distance of perennial national standouts Barnabus Kirui and Ben Cheruiyot is nothing to scoff at. Team #1 Dorian Ulrey should only continue to improve as he recovers from a long lay-off after an injury in the summer. The competition will get considerably steeper for the Hogs at NCAA's, as the SEC is weak this year and their competition at their NCAA region is traditionally soft.
Syracuse and Florida State: These are two major conferences teams that emerged victorious, but do not stand much of a shot at the podium in my view. Neither team has great firepower at the front as they are led by 2 guys that you could probably project in the 20-30 range at Nationals. Florida State had their 3,4, and 5 guys finish in a pack together some 25 seconds behind. While this led to an easy victory against ACC competition, the Noles will need considerably more up-front running if they are to challenge some of the top-heavy favorites. The Orange, meanwhile have a strong #3, but need to have #4 man Tito Medrano to run closer to their top guys to match the Oklahoma States and Stanfords of the world. Even if he does, their fifth man might hold them back.
Shout Outs: UNC (solid freshman class and beating Virginia and Duke was pretty unexpected), Louisville (nearly pulled off a good upset against the Orange)
Losers of Conference Championship Weekend:
Oregon: By far, the most famed casualty of the weekend was the Ducks who might just have too many holes in their lineup to be a contender in a few short weeks. Despite AJ Acosta's valiant efforts to assert himself as a legitimate #4, the Ducks came up woefully short against Stanford. Acosta, provided a perfect snapshot of the Ducks' struggle. Like his teammates, he went out hard and with reckless abandon. Like his teammates, his fate was to fade away inexorably until Stanford had blown out the Ducks in embarassing fashion. There is some good news for the Ducks. One athlete seems almost certain to improve his relative position on the team and vis a vis Stanford. That is Danny Mercado who has consistently thrived at the 10 Kilometer distance, and at Nationals in particular. What is worrisome, though, is how Acosta will hold up over an additional 2 KM at Nationals. He was going backwards, the last 3 kilometers, and really only had the lack of depth in the Pac 10's to thank for not getting passed by scores of runners. At the NCAA's he must take a more conservative approach and hope to finish in the top 60. Luke Puskedra and Matt Centrowitz had disappointing races at Pac 10'st last year too, so maybe they are capable of a bounceback behind Lananna's maneuvering. The Elephant in the room, though, is the utter lack of a legitimate fifth man. Oregon played make-believe the first half of the Pac 10's and ran their seven way up at the front like they were as strong as championship team's past. To put it bluntly, they crashed and burned. Even if Vin dials back his group's aggressiveness and Acosta holds up as a #4, the fifth guy looks like too much of a blemish to over come.
Shout Outs: Indiana: They were supposed to contend against Wisconsin, but it doesn't look like anyone besides Andrew Bayer cared to show up. Duke: 5'th in the ACC for a 14'th ranked team...? Oklahoma: They were great at Pre-Nats, but the Colorado pack just had their way with them at Big 12's
View For Lane 9 Power Rankings:
1. Oklahoma State: Best 1-3 and 1-4 in the nation, defending champs, a couple of fifth man options
2. Stanford: The deeper and more experienced second pack is the main question as Heath and Riley look poised to rebound from last year's disappointing showing
3. Wisconsin: This team is poised to strike if the two teams above encounter trouble with their lower scoring runners
4. Northern Arizona: NAU is missing a few guys including Jordan Chipangama. If he does not compete, I still think this team is top 10 capable, but a chance for the podium is gone.
5. Oregon: I think a 5'th who scores around 100 points will doom them from contention. Through a good top 4, though, they can outgun a bunch of teams.
6. Colorado: Don't let the fact that they got killed by OK State deceive you- this is a very good team that with Wetmore's touch should get into the top 10.
T7. Florida State and Arkansas: These are both overachieving teams whose 4 and 5 guys kind of worry me in the gauntlet that is the 10KM National Championship race. At their best, they belong here, though.
9. Iona: Without top 10 threat Ryan Sheridan, I don't think this team is the top 5 contender it appeared to be at the beginning of the year.
10. Oklahoma: I think their prudent pack-running strategy and experience from last year will pay off at Nationals.
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