For a prognosticator, a regional qualifying meet is a dreaded thing. The results should have some merit over the regular season's ones in that the race distance is the championship distance(10K). However, that factor is overshadowed by the unimportance of the specific results to the pertinent teams and individuals. For that reason, if you read too much into this individual over that individual or this team over that team, you will get burned. For most of the best runners or teams, the meet is all about qualifying as easily as is prudent or possible.
Ricky Bobby might have introduced to us the quote: "If you ain't first your last", but the apt quote for regionals might be "If you ain't first, but you're qualified, you're first".
To whit, the clear consensus top 2 teams rested runners(Oklahoma State sat Girma Mecheso) or had them run glorified jogs(see Stanford leading trio having a pleasant jaunt accompanied by Matt Centrowitz). Other individuals restrained theirselves for 80% of the race or ran cautiously in packs - marshaling their efforts in a way that they likely don't intend to at Nationals. After all, no one remembers who the West Regional Champions are and who beat who at the meet.
From this murky picture, I'll try to hash out the signals from the noise and decide which teams now look the best in the team battle next Monday.
Championship Contenders (previous rank):
1. Oklahoma State (1)
If It Goes Right: This team is overwhelming if they are running on all cylinders. The top 3 features three top 10 threats in VFL9 cover boy Colby Lowe, German Fernandez, and Girma Mecheso. Meanwhile #4 man Tom Farrell has stuck within 10 seconds of the third man all year long, and appears to be a top 30 or top 20 threat. With that low a score through 4 runners (40-50 points), the fifth guy could be as high as 80 or 90 team points, and OK State could pull it out. That is essentially what happened last year with an ailing Fernandez running fifth with 77 points. OK State's fifth position has 3 guys jockeying for it with much higher ceiling than that. Ryan Prentice and Joseph Manifalasha (9'th at Big 12's) can, on their best day near the 50'th-80'th place range overall. The third guy could be 2010 Big 12 1500 Champ Jonathan Stublauski who showed a decent ceiling at Chile Pepper. The main point is, though, if the top 4 guys do their job a decent day out of one of three guys (5-7 runners) could be enough, a good day out of any of them could put a ton of pressure on Stanford and make OK St. nearly unbeatable.
Where it Could Go Wrong: It could go wrong at the front where Farrell and Fernandez, as consistently as they've run, have not delivered top 30 finishes at Nationals. Fernandez has injury and durability issues. His abilities over 10K on uneven surfaces are somewhat unclear. He has not strayed from pack-running yet this year and there is the possibility a more wide-open race may threaten his race plan. Farrell, meanwhile, has been slowly finding himself more and more detached from the leading three as the season goes on. He is worse credentials than many of the athletes he'll be running with, and if he gets out of his comfort zone, it's unclear how he'll respond. Mecheso has a tendency to be very ambitious and if he gets overexcited and tries to run with Chelanga or McNeill it could be a very long and costly last 2K.
Regional Clues: According to onlookers, Colby Lowe only chased after race leader Kevin Schwab very, very late in the race and looked impressive in beating him. German Fernandez wore flats, which could either indicate that coach Dave Smith is being extremely cautious or that he is banged-up. Oklahoma State's 5'th men-to-be did not have a great showing as Manifalasha ran 19'th and Prentice ran 23'rd.
2. Stanford (2)
If It Goes Right: This team has three potential low sticks that could contribute a total as low as 20 points. Chris Derrick, Elliot Heath, and Jake Riley have dominated every race they've entered this year. Regardless, of who is filling out the last two spots that makes them extremely tough to beat. Meanwhile, they have good depth at the 4-7 spots as evidenced at Pac 10's and at Pre Nationals. While whoever fills the spots (Miles Untereinner will likely hold down one spot) won't be a duo of world-beaters, they are guys who could on their best days contribute around 40-60 points each. Combining that with the 3, the team could yield a score in the low 100s or under- good enough to win many years. This year, the team has added more clarity to their racing strategy and packs, which could help them avoid the mistakes they made last year.
Where it Could Go Wrong: While Derrick is proven at the NCAA level, Heath and Riley do not have top 30 finishes to their name. The Cardinal came in similarly hyped last year only to tank badly. Heath lost a ton of place in the 5K-8K section, and the supporting cast was quickly seen as wildly overrated when Unterreiner finished way out of the range where he needed to be and Justin Marpole-Bird absolutely whiffed. This year the depth at the 6-7 level looks to be superior, but the 4-5 guys look about the same in their performances. No doubt, Riley is a whole different runner and can keep up with the big boys now. Still, whether he is a top 15 guy that could help his team clear of OK State is a matter of debate. Bottom line, of the 4 guys in their second pack 2 need to have standout performances that are superior to any they've had in cross country if they are to beat an on-form OK State team. That might be a lot to ask for in the most difficult race in college cross country. This is not to mention that the top 3 need to put some area between themselves and OK State's trio because the advantage at the 4 to spot appears to be Oklahoma State's.
Regional Clues: Uhhh, Zilch really. Stanford's top 3 cruised, and their 4-5 guys appeared to have run pretty easily themselves. The 6 and 7 guys did fall off, which could be a bit discouraging if they want to tilt the odds of an overperformance from one on the supporting 4 in their favor. You could say they didn't really sabotage anything or run too hard, which might be an improvement over last year.
3. Wisconsin (3)
This one really doesn't need a breakdown. This is a team with very few question marks and a #5 and 1-5 split that have the top 2 rightfully envious. That being said, they probably need some help- a bonking or two from the top two would put them right in the hunt. Wisconsin has 5 legitimate All American runners in Maverick Darling, Landon Peacock, Elliot Krause, Mohammed Ahmed and Reed Connor. In my book, though, none are likely to finish top 15. That puts the Badgers at a serious disadvantage against the firepower of Oklahoma State and Stanford. If Wisconsin has a good race you can expect some team point total of this nature: 15-20-25-35-40. That would be 135 points. Could that be good enough? Possibly if the fifth man (OK State) or fourth and fifth men (Stanford) pick up a triple digit tab. If one of those teams' big three DNF's or bonks, then all bets are off and Wisconsin can win.
Regional Note: They obliterated their region, but it's unclear a) if this region's any good b) if rival Indiana was even trying/cared. The one thing I'll take from it is, as mentioned before, this 1-5 is as rock solid as any this year.
In Need of a Slight Miracle/Podium Threats
4. Oregon (5)
The fifth man or lack thereof is the elephant in the room. Of course, regionals gave us little to no clarity as pretenders Ben Dejarnette and Parker Stinson finished 28'th and 32'nd. On the positive side Danny Mercado finished 11'th in a bounceback effort, and it's reasonable to expect him to establish himself in his customary 30'th-60'th place finishing range at Nationals. AJ Acosta very well may be a serviceable #4, and the top 2 in Matthew Centrowitz and Luke Puskedra have earned the benefit of the doubt. That will all be moot if their fifth guy scores upward of 100 points, which looks possible, perhaps even likely.
5. Oklahoma (10)
I was rightfully discouraged about this group after a lackluster Big 12 meet, but they rebounded very nicely and looked excellent in dispatching an undermanned Oklahoma State squad. I'd kind of view them as a poor man's Wisconsin squad. Team leader Kevin Schwab nearly won the regional meet in a wire-to-wire effort, which may tap him a bit for Nationals. Meanwhile, they placed their next 4 in the top 15. Their depth after their #5 man like most teams falls pretty far off, but if all 5 guys run decently this is the type of team that could snag the podium with a few blow-ups in front of them
6. Arkansas (T7) & New Mexico (NR)
Much like Oklahoma, I whiffed on New Mexico in the last ranking after a similarly disappointing conference performance(even in winning the MWC). Arkansas dominated their pretty pathetic region, which is to be expected. I'm a bit fearful of both of these teams' fifth men (UNM- Brock Hagerman Ark- Rick Elliott), but through four they look solid. It's a bit of a different mix for the two teams. Arkansas has two potential low sticks in Dorian Ulrey and Solomon Haile. I'd expect their 3-4 to be gapped a bit more at Nationals, but still finish in decent position. New Mexico meanwhile has 4 guys who should finish somewhere in between Arkansas' 1-2 and 3-4. In the end, if I had to pick I'd guess I'd take New Mexico because they seem to have done a little better at Nationals as a team recently.
Long Shots for the Podium
8. Alabama (NR)
Never awake a sleeping....team of Kenyans? These guys went from beating Florida by single digits at SEC's to nearly putting their scoring 5 inside of Florida's #2 guy and destroying them at regionals. This team seems to perenially outperform at Nationals. They run only 5 deep (in good runners, and yes, Kenyans) in truly dramatic fashion, so they'll have to hope no one drops out or has an awful day. Otherwise, runner #5 will be adding 200 or so points to their team score.
9. Colorado (6)
Still a good team, and I think a guy like Christian Thompson (19'th at Regionals) for example, should be able to bounce back at Nationals. The spread of the team was only 15 seconds, and it's possible they were holding back somewhat at Regionals.
10. Northern Arizona (4)
Neither of their two missing top 5 guys (Chipingama or Ashkettle) appears to be coming back. They still have two low sticks in probable one-pointer David McNeill and emerging star Diego Estrada. That should be enough to beat a bunch of teams who have similar questions in the back half of their squad.
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