NCAA Top 30 Individual Power Rankings: Pre-Regional Edition

The top 3 are back and in fine form, but who will follow them in Terra Haute and in what order? VFL9 breaks down the individual race at NCAA's.

Format- Athlete (Last Year's NCAA Finish/This Year's Conference Finish/Greatest NCAA accomplishment/PR)

The Heavy Favorite:

1. Samuel Chelanga - Liberty (1'st/1'st Big South/27:08 10,000m PB)

Comment: Chelanga won by 21 seconds, and that was before he dropped a jaw-dropping 27:08 in outdoor track. No competitor can match that stellar mark, and an undefeated season thusfar filled with what, for Chelanga, have been under-control efforts bodes well for the defending champion. Look for him to deliver a fast start and attempt to run away from the rest of the nation's best.

Should they Stay or Should They Go (after Sammy):

2. David McNeill -Northern Arizona (2'nd/1'st Big Sky/2010 NCAA Outdoor 5000m Champion defeating Chelanga and Derrick)

Comment: McNeill had finished in 10'th and 15'th as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, before making the leap to the silver spot last year. Since then, he has only gotten better and established himself as the best 5000 meter man in the country with a resounding victory outdoors. The only true concern with him is the state of his fitness and base after competing in the Commonwealth Games for Australia. So far, McNeill has taken care of business and given no indication that the unusual lead-up to his cross country will hamper him at all. He is an extremely consistent athlete with perhaps the best change-of speed and finish amongst the top contenders. McNeill can either choose to run with Chelanga or to let him go and rely on that aforementioned strength. If he goes with Chelanga, and Chelanga is on, he very well might face a heavy price and be caught by some more prudent runners behind him.

3. Chris Derrick -Stanford (3'rd/3'rd Pac 10/13:29.98 former American Junior Record in the 5000)

Comment: Derrick is perhaps the hardest athlete to predict as his strategy could limit his individual placing while enriching those of his teammates. Last year, Derrick ran on his own from the start and nearly snagged an impressive second place before McNeill defeated him near the finish. Derrick's Stanford teammates, however, struggled mightily. This year, Derrick has vowed that he is team-first and will accompany the other 2 high-level Stanford Cardinal runners. To do this, he might have to abandon hopes of staying with a fast-starting Chelanga or an ambitious McNeill. Less up in the air is Derrick's ability in 10K Cross Country where he started his run of success with outstanding runs as a freshman at the West Regional meet and the NCAAs(top 10). His Pac 10 finish is misleading because he ran it with his two teammates as a group and winning was not a priority.

The Best of the Rest

4. Barnabus Kirui -Ole Miss (4'th/1'st SEC/8:20.36 3000m Steeplechase and National Championship in 2007)

Comment: Kirui appears to have regained his top form after getting swept by the Stanford top 3 at Pre-Nationals. At the SEC meet, he beat a strong individual field by almost ten seconds, and even though his performances since last years 4'th place finish have been somewhat uneven, it appears that he is on now. His exceptional steeplechase mark from way back in 2007 is an indication that Kirui has a very high ceiling as a runner, and with a fourth place finish last year he clearly has the experience and the mettle to deal with the pressures of the Big Dance.

5. Colby Lowe -Oklahoma State (8'th/3'rd Big 12/13:42.60 5000m)

Comment: Lowe had a phenomenal race to finish 8'th last year and has run consistently all of this year. He is an excellent cross-country runner and has big-time strength and endurance that sets him up perfectly for the 10,000 meter distance. Coach Dave Smith will instruct him to run an intelligent pack-race with his teammates and to use his steadiness to move through the field patiently and inexorably. The bet here is that he succeeds and leads the Cowboys to the title.

6. Elliot Heath -Stanford #2 (37'th/1'st Pac 10/13:29 5000m)

Comment: This is my first gamble, as I'm forecasting Heath to jump some 31 spots. The main reasons are I expect teammate Chris Derrick to tow him along this year, and a 13:29 5,000m is such a tremendous mark that he should be finishing in this area. Yes, he got it all wrong last year and fell asleep between 5K and 8K, but I think Derrick's presence will help him as will an extra year of improvement and last year's experience.

7. Girma Mecheso -Oklahoma State #2 (28'th/1'st Big 12/28:26 10,000m)

Comment: If I'm making a big gamble for the Cardinal, I'll make a smaller one for the squad I believe will win, the Cowboys. Mecheso is the most up and down of the Oklahoma State top 3 this year, but at his best he's been magnificent in the closing stages of races with a conference victory and a win at the Cowboy Invitational. He's been a top 30 guy at Nationals his two years, and I expect him to break out this year with the aid of his teammates and their formidable pack.

8. Luke Puskedra -Oregon (21'st/4'th Pac 10/28:34 10,000m)

Comment: Puskedra finished 5'th in the NCAA Championships as a freshman before dropping to 21'st last year. My hunch is that he is somewhere in between that this year. Although he only finished 4'th at Pac 10's this year, I see him doing comparatively better than most with the extra 2K tacked on for the Championship meet. His pedigree at the NCAA meet is better than most of the athletes I have ranked below him.

9. Dorian Ulrey -Arkansas (6'th/3'rd SEC/2010 NCAA indoor 3000m Champion 3:35 1500)

Comment: The mid-distance ace was a surprising 6'th last year in his debut appearance at the NCAA Cross Country meet. I'm a little down on him this year as his results have been mediocre for a runner of his stature. That being said, his slowly improving finishing times and places make sense when you consider he got a late start to summer base training after a long layoff due to injuries. Week-to-week he is getting stronger and his talent is unquestioned.

10. German Fernandez -Oklahoma State #3 (97'th/2'nd Big 12/ 2009 NCAA Outdoor 1500m Champion 13:25 5000)

Comment: The incredibly talented Fernandez is a force, plain and simple. Consider that he even when he was somewhat hobbled as a freshman, he beat NCAA XC top 10 finishers in Derrick and Puskedra twice in a row at USATF XC junior nationals and at World Juniors XC. His college career has been marred with injuries, but he appears to be in shape and fully healthy at the moment. My take is that Dave Smith has not let him go yet, and that come NCAA's and regionals he might even exceed this placing. Given how injury prone and green to the last 3000 meters of the race he is, I'll play it conservatively and say he hangs with Lowe and Mecheso for a significant portion of the race.

Next 20:

11. Ben Cheruiyot - Auburn
12. Lee Carey - Providence
13. Stephen Sambu - Arizona
14. Emil Heineking - Virginia
15. Landon Peacock - Wisconsin
16. Don Cabral - Princeton
17. Matthew Centrowitz- Oregon #2
18. Julius Bor - Alabama
19. Michael Coe - California
20. Tom Farrell - Oklahoma State #4
21. Andrew Bayer - Indiana
22. Jake Riley - Stanford #3
23. Mohammed Ahmed - Wisconsin #2
24. Miles Batty- BYU
25. Ryan Collins - Virginia #2
26. Justin Tyner- Air Force
27. Ryan Hill - NC State
28. Leonard Korir- Iona
29. Diego Estrada - Northern Arizona #2
30. Andrew Wacker- Colorado