On Tuesday(see post below)I predicted teams and I felt reasonably confident in my reasons for where I placed them. Today, while trying to lock down where the NCAA's top individuals will finish, admittedly, there is considerably more second-guessing, reconsidering, and shuffling that takes place. The difference between athletes in the 1-30 range is miminal, and a very good day from the 15'th best runner in the nation could very well trump a decent day from the the 10'th best. With that being said, here are my projections for Mondays action:1. Samuel Chelanga - Liberty (1'st Place Southeast Regional/1'st Place 2009)
Comment: Well, duh. It's probably not worth overthinking this one. Chelanga is the defending champ by a whopping 25 seconds. He ran 27:08 for the 10,000 in the spring, which is a mark untouched by anyone else. This season in Cross Country, he is undefeated and unchallenged. Knowing what I know, there is little reason to expect a different result than last year.
Previous Rank: 1
2. David McNeill- Northern Arizona (1'st Place Mountain Regional/2'nd Place 2009)
Comment: This is where I very well could overthink my #1 pick. McNeill beat Chelanga for the indoor and outdoor 5000m NCAA Championship. Then again, this is the 10,000 and its Cross Country. Moreover, McNeill's season started late with his appearance at the Commonwealth Games, and it's hard to say that after a likely sub-optimal buildup for this meet that he has gained so much relative to last year's champion Chelanga.
Previous Rank: 2
3. Chris Derrick - Stanford (7'th Place West Regional/3'rd Place 2009)
Comment: Derrick jogged the West Regional, so just throw that out. I really see no reason to move him from my previous rank of 3. Even if he runs a team race, it appears that Heath and Riley are good enough that he will not give much ground to anyone beside the top two. If he's in the front of the main pack, I'm confident he can finish with anyone.
Previous Rank: 3
4. Girma Mecheso - Oklahoma State (DNS at Mid-West Regional/28'th Place 2009)
Comment: I'm going to give Mecheso a little bump here after learning more details of his race at the Chile Pepper Invite. While in the last rankings, I held this against him because he was detached from the Oklahoma State leading trio, it turns out he was leading the race by quite a bit before stopping to throw up. Even so, he finished fourth. He emerged at the Big 12 meet and won it going away and triumphed at the Cowboy invitational early in the season as well. Put it all together and he's been running the best out of the Oklahoma State group (and that's saying quite a bit).
Previous Rank: 7
5. Colby Lowe - Oklahoma State (1'st at Mid West Regional/8'th Place 2009)
Comment: Lowe won impressively at the Mid-West Regional, holding back per his coach Dave Smith's instructions until the last 2 or 3K and then making up a huge gap on big-time leader Kevin Schwab. All the reasons I liked him a couple weeks back hold.
Previous Rank: 5
6. Elliot Heath - Stanford (8'th at West Regional/37'th Place 2009)
Comment: Cruised with Derrick at the West Regional. I expect him to fulfill his promise this year (sub 13:30 5K runner), and finish right on the heels of his rivals from Oklahoma State.
Previous Rank: 6
7. Barnabus Kirui - Ole Miss (6'th at South Regional/4'th Place 2009)
Comment: I'm a bit discouraged by his regional finish, but I've decided to give him the benefit of the doubt while dropping him a few spots. A bunch of guys he easily took care of at the SEC Championships were able to turn the tables on him. That might have to do more with his effort(or lack thereof) during the race, then what he plans on doing at the Championships.
Previous Rank: 4
8. Dorian Ulrey - Arkansas (3'rd at South Central Region/6'th Place 2009)
Comment: Once he lets loose at Nationals I think he'll separate himself from his teammates and garner another top 10 showing.
Previous Rank: 9
9. Evans Kigen - Liberty (2'nd at Southeast Regional/20'th Place 2009)
Comment: I forgot about him in my initial rankings despite his status as ostensibly, a top 10 returner, as is often the case for an athlete who is overshadowed by his teammate, Sammy Chelanga.
Previous Rank: NR
10. Leonard Korir - Iona (1'st at Northeast Regional/DNS 2009)
Comment: Korir gets a substantial boost up the ranking for me after convincingly dispatching Lee Carey and Dan Chenoweth at the Regional meet in a performance reminscient of former teammate and last year's 12'th place finisher, Ryan Sheridan.
Previous Rank: 28
11. German Fernandez - Oklahoma State (3'rd at Mid West Regional/97'th 2009)
Comment: He was spotted running in flats, and whether he could have or couldn't have he did not choose to go with teammate Colby Lowe at his regional meet. Dave Smith & co. might be exerting extra caution, but it seems to be as talented as he is that in 10K XC this is about the range he should finish in.
Previous Rank: 10
12. Luke Puskedra - Oregon (4'th at West Regional/21'st 2009)
Comment: His regional race, much like his overall season's performance is slightly better than that of his 2009 campaign. Nothing indicates that he is back to this 2008 top 10 form, however.
Previous Rank: 8
13. Stephen Sambu - Arizona (2'nd at West Regional/DNS 2009)
Comment: His close runner-up finish at Regionals demonstrates he is nearing the form that he had attained before suffering his mid-season injury. Look for some of his inexperience and aversion to the cold to show itself, but for his talent to be enough for an excellent debut in the national race.
Previous Rank: 13
14. Lee Carey - Providence (2'nd at Northeast Regional/52'nd 2009)
Comment: The Big East Champ could not stay with Leonard Korir at the regional meet, but he was clear of Dan Chenoweth and has had a consistent season.
Previous Rank: 12
15. Trevor Dunbar - Portland (1'st at West Regional/76'th 2009)
Comment: I'm always afraid of "name" athletes because they are often overrated. Dunbar is a well-known guy for his 3200 meter exploits on snow-covered tracks, his performances in junior competition and his high school success in XC(1'st American at FL). I was dubious on him, but I have to acknowlege he is a contender after he won the West regional and promptly downplayed it.
Previous Rank: NR
16. Matthew Centrowitz - Oregon (6'th at West Regional/27'th 2009)
Comment: There was no tank job at regionals this year for Mr. Centrowitz who shared a laugh with the Stanford trio and qualified rather easily.
Previous Rank: 17
17. Don Cabral - Princeton (5'th at Mid-Atlantic Regional/DNS 2009)
Comment: I suspect Cabral was running a "team" race at Regionals, but will do his own thing at Nationals. He's a big enough talent to finish in the top 20 of the field.
Previous Rank: 16
18. Jake Riley - Stanford(9'th at West Region/54'th 2009)
Comment: I pored over some more data, and I suspect that others are right in their assessment that I was too hard on Jake Riley.
Previous Rank: 22
19. Landon Peacock - Wisconsin (9'th at Great Lakes Region/96'th 2009)
Comment: The Great Lakes, much like last year, is a pretty weak region in terms of individual athletes. I'm pretty much throwing out Wisconsin's result because it seems this was an easy, pack effort for the Badgers. Big 10 champ Peacock should be primed to return to his top 25 form of 2008.
Previous Rank: 15
20. Kevin Schwab - Oklahoma(2'nd at Midwest Regional/62'nd 2009)
Comment: Although he was caught by Colby Lowe, Schwab's ambitious effort indicates that the Coach has confidence in him mixing it up at the front at Nationals. If he runs a bit more sensibly he could provide a far better placing than most would suspect for the leader of Oklahoma's deep squad.
Previous Rank: NR
Best of the Rest(aka crapshoot):
21. Ben Cheruiyot (Auburn)
22. Michael Coe (California)
23. Miles Batty (BYU)
24. Julius Bor (Alabama)
25. Tom Farrell (Oklahoma State)
26. Mohammed Ahmed (Wisconsin)
27. Diego Estrada (NAU)
28. Festus Kigen (TCU)
29. Ciaran O'Lionaird (Florida St.)
30. Daniel Chenoweth (Harvard)
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