Headliner- A Middle Distance Meet for the Ages: The last Diamond League meet takes place this Friday in Brussels and the table is set for the best middle distance racing of the year.In the 800 meters, the men's side features newly anointed world record holder, David Rudisha, versus his #1 challenger Abubaber Kaki. Their last battle depicted to the left of this text yielded a phenomenal race with Rudisha emerging with a narrow victory stopping the clock in 1:42.0.
On the women's side, Russian Mariya Savinova will try to stamp herself as a serious challenger to controversial 2009 World Champion Caster Semenya, whose gender is now in more doubt than her form after a sub 2 clocking last week. Perennial contenders Janeth Jepkosgei and World Leader Alysia Johnson will try to redeem themselves after some disappointing recent results and end their Diamond League campaigns with a flourish.
One event up, the men's 1500 features the return of 2008 Olympic Gold Medalist Asbel Kiprop who will have to arrive sharp and ready to roll against a deep field including Mekonnen Gebremehdin, and Augustine Choge. Kiprop, despite all his success and a stellar wins and losses record over the past three years, owns a somewhat pedestrian 3:31.20 personal best, which will surely come under pressure if he is to win this race.
Now, onto event blurbs in order of the meet schedule:
Men's 3000m Steeplechase:
The admirably consistent Kenyan grinder Paul Koech takes on European Champion Mahiediene Benabbad and a somewhat underwhelming field. The two headline athletes met in Zurich, and Koech and eventual winner Ezekiel Kemboi were the only two athletes to withstand the ambitious pacemaking set by the rabbits. Koech, competing in his 3'rd steeple in 13 days, faltered in the final lap, but still was well clear of 3'rd place running 8:05. Benabbad brought up the rear of the chase pack in a disappointing 8'th place 8:10 performance. In a low key meeting on Tuesday, he ran 3:36 for 1500 meters, a solid if unspectacular performance. In this race, I think Koech with a much-needed 8 days of rest should be able to execute his typical race plan and run away from Benabbad after 2000 meters. Koech is an excellent frontrunner, and he has shown incredible surging ability and hammering ability this season after the pacemakers do their job. His vulnerability is in the last lap where those that have been able to keep with his relentless tempo can use superior kicks to go by his own.
Prediction: 1. Koech 2. Benabbad 3. Taher
Men's 400m Hurdles:
Puerto Rican Javier Culson gets a shot to avenge his oh-so-narrow defeat to world leader Bershawn Jackson in London. Also, in the field is two time Olympic champion Angelo Taylor whose fitness on the flat 400m at least is very good considering his 44.7 400m run in Zurich. European Champion David Greene and the future of the event, 18 year old Jehue Gordon round out the contenders in the field. This matchup is a fascinating showdown of styles. All of the major protagonists run hard the first 100m and assert themselves early. Angelo Taylor, however, practices the boldest strategy generally appearing to go for broke the first 250 meters. Jackson, on the other hand, eases the pace in this stretch remaining faithful to his step pattern as others go past him. Culson is somewhere in the middle of those polar opposites- running a relatively fast first 250. Taylor's form and speed tend to wind down a bit over the last three or four hurdles, although he has been known to exhibit a strong last 40 meters of running past the tenth hurdle. Culson maintains relatively well over the last few hurdles, but Jackson simply outlasted him over the last 40 meters in London. Jackson, to his credit, generally runs the best last 150 meters of the field.
Prediction: 1. Jackson 2. Taylor 3. Culson
Women's 200m:
Barring some disastrous occurence or an immediate loss of form, the clock should be the only genuine opponent of diamond league leader Alysson Felix as she competes in a field missing rival Veronica Campbell-Brown. Let's just say I predict Felix to win and leave it at that.
Women's 800m:
As mentioned in the headliner section, this race is one of the highlights of the meet featuring a wide-open race for the diamond and the major meet return of Semenya. Irish pacesetter Karen Shinkins should take this one out in a brisk 56 or 57 seconds for the first circuit. An athlete likely to benefit is Alysia Johnson who completely ran out of gas after running at the front the first 650 meters of the race in London, a race with no rabbits. Here, she should make her presence felt from 400 meters out and see if she can hold on better with only half of the task that she had in London. Although, she is the only athlete who consistently frontruns, you can expect Jepkosgei, Semenya and Savinova to wage battle over prime position from 400 meters to 600 meters. Savinova loves to kick from 150 meters out and she showed an excellent finish in London that Jepkosgei could not match. The rail-thin Jepkosgei's ability to position herself against her rivals should once again prove pivotal to her fortunes. You can expect no such trouble from the strongly-build Semenya whose fitness will be thoroughly tested. Although, her sub 2 run was encouraging, she will undoubtedly need a run of 2 or 3 seconds faster to win here. Elsewhere in the field, American Anna Pierce will be trying to erase the memory of her last race when she fell to the track after a mishap involving training partner Morgan Uceny. If, for some reason this race goes out slow and becomes a kicker's battle, Brit Jemma Simpson showed excellent closing speed in London and countrywoman Jenny Meadows has shown the same in the past.
Prediction: 1. Savinova 2. Semenya 3. Jepkosgei
Men's 100m:
How fast can American Tyson Gay go? As we saw on Shaq vs., clearly fast enough to beat the Diesel. But is it fast enough to beat an on-form Usain Bolt? Gay ran a superb 9.78 in inclement conditions in London with wind and weather determinedly working against him. In that race, as is in this race the field included a young star-in-the-making Jamaican, Yohan Blake. Blake finished second in a solid 19.86 200m performance in Zurich. His start is what held him back both in his defeat in the 100m in London and in the 200m in Zurich. One other athlete to watch in the field is another Jamaican, Nesta Carter, whose seasonal best of 9.86 commands respect. Gay will be tested if he has an underwhelming start with Blake's excellent finishing and top-end speed as well as Carter's above-average starting ability. However, if Gay's emphasis on starts under starting extraordinare Jon Drummond continues to pay off his race will be against the clock. His personal best is 9.69 and with the form he has been showing of late, a good wind and some favorable temperature could set the stage for a mark that will resonate from Brussels to America to Kingston, Jamaica.
Prediction: 1. Gay 9.68 2. Carter 3. Blake
Men's 1500m:
The burning question of this highly-anticipated race is can anyone beat African Champion Asbel Kiprop? The tall, gangly Kenyan is undefeated in his last five 1500m/Mile race including an African Championship, and three Diamond League Victories. In the introduction, I mentioned his main challengers. The pacemaking will be in the hands of the serviceable David Krummenaker who is likely to set this race up in the 3:30-3:32 range if his pacemaking in London is any indication. Augustine Choge's MO has been to take over the leading duties the last 400 meters. The strategy has often come up short, but it was successful a few weeks ago in London against a strong field. Choge's last effort out was discouraging, though, as he was defeated in Berlin by Mekonnen Gebremehdin who is another member of this race. Gebremehdin likes to lurk on the shoulder of Choge as he did in London. Another man to watch is European champion Arturo Casado who a solid 3:32.70 and showed phenomenal closing speed to romp to victory in his continental championships. If the pace is slow, he will be a force. Similarly, Leonel Manzano has shown great closing ability in his races this season. Fresh off a greater than half-second personal best in the 800 in Berlin, a nearly even-split 1:44.56, it would not be surprising to see Manzano nip one of the main protagonists and run a time in the 3:32 range. Ultimately, though, Kiprop should have the measure of the field if he has sustained his fitness since the African Championsips. His abilities are worthy of a personal best in the 3:28-3:29 range and I suspect he will get closer to that range in this race.
Prediction: 1. Kiprop (3:30) 2. Gebremehdin 3. Manzano
Women's 100m Hurdles:
Canadian Priscilla Lopes-Schliep has added some sense of order to an event characterized by complete unpredictability in the beginning of the year. Her hot streak should continue even against a stacked field including Lolo Jones, Sally Pearson, and Perdita Felicien.
Prediction: 1. Lopes-Schliep 2. Pearson 3. Jones
Men's 800m:
This and the men's 100 meters are probably the most eagerly awaited events of the evening. Call me a Kaki cynic(har har), but I think this one will end out being a dud. David Rudisha announced in a Kenyan newspaper article that he is running this one purely for the win and saving a future record attempt for two days later in Rieti. Still, his personal pacesetter and training partner Sammy Tangui is in the field presumably to set the tempo. The last time I saw Rudisha pull a similar trick was in Lausanne. There he ran a ho-hum 1:43.25, dictating the pace in front of 2009 World Champion Mbulaine Mulaudzi before easing away the last 100 to win easily. Here, I foresee more of the same. The pace should be under 50 seconds at 400 meters with the field giving a healthy dose of respect to both Rudisha and Abubaber Kaki. At that point, uncharacteristic of his record attempts and all-out efforts Rudisha will run a reasonable 400m-600m segment for him (still hard for everyone else) in around 26-27 seconds. I think he will be up to the challenge of Kaki or anyone else in the field in the last 200 meter where he will do enough to comfortably win. The reason I am down on Kaki is in London he really struggled running 49 seconds for the first 400 and then he was really laboring to hold off Andrew Wheating in 1:44. These are negative signs going into a duel with a well-rested and on-fire Rudisha. I might be reading too much into London, but I think Kaki's form has peaked and if tries to topple Rudisha, he might struggle to beat Boaz Lalang, Jackson Kivuva and Marcin Lewandowski in the closing stages of the race.
Prediction: 1. Rudisha 2. Lewandowski 3. Kaki
Women's 5000m:
Last, but not least is yet another (primarily) African battle in the women's 5000m. The favorite would have to be Vivian Cheruiyot who looked unbeatable before running into a resurgent Tirunesh Dibaba, who is not competing in this race. Nipping at Cheruiyot's heels will be Sentayehu Ejigu, Elvan Albeyegesse, Sylvia Kibet, Linet Masai, and Meselech Melkamu. The Diamond League crown is up-for-grabs between Ejigu and Cheruiyot, so the gamesmanship should be fierce between the two.
Prediction: 1. Cheruiyot 2. Ejigu 3. Kibet
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