Astoundingly Loaded. Those are the two words that I think best describe this week's two day track and field bonanza that is known proper as the Aviva London. The meet has nearly all of the year's top performers and an extensive program that truly does necessitate two days. Without further ado and for fear of hyping this up so much a letdown would be inevitable, I will begin with a preview of events starting on Friday(and in order of time schedule).
Men's 3000m:
Men's 3000m:
Headliners: A top-heavy field features last week's 5000m winner at the DL Stockholm meet, emerging Kenyan star Mark Kiptoo. Kiptoo, to my surprise, stated in a flotrack interview that he wants to run the 1500m for Kenya, and this race should give some type of inkling whether that goal is realistic. The man whose likeness you can see above and to your left, European 5,000 and 10,000m Champ Mo Farah, will be the Londoner's heavy fan favorite as he hopes to give the fans some aspirations of glory for the 2012 Olympics. Also, in the field is American 5000m record holder Bernard Lagat, who has made no secret of his desire to erase the American 3000m record of Bob Kennedy (7:30.84) from the books. American fans will also look for a strong performance from Galen Rupp who fell last week in the 5000 on his way to what likely would have been a significant personal best.
Athletes and Storylines That Might Interest Only Me:
1. 2005 World Championship Bronze Medalist in the 5000, Craig Mottram, should make his long-awaited return to the big-time in this race. Mottram tuned up with a slow victory (7:50 in Watford) in another 3,000, but will certainly find this arena to be a totally different ballgame. While his mantle as the trailblazing white guy amongst the herds of East Africans has been assumed by Chris Solinsky, Mottram hopes to recover the form that saw him beat the likes of Tariku Bekele in an 8:03.50 2 mile victory in 2007, and contend for wins often on the 3000-5000m circuit from 2004-2007.
2. Two Kenyans with interesting backgrounds, Micah Kogo and Titus Mbishei, also are part of the field. Kogo set the world record for 10KM (27:01) on the roads in March of 2009. Mbishei was the silver medalist at the World Cross Country meet in 2009. Mbishei ran 13:00 for the 5,000 at Stockholm while Kogo ran 7:43 a little under a month ago. These guys have both shown phenomenal endurance and form, but the questions will be what their fitness is now, and if the shorter 3000m distance suits them.
Race Dynamics: The London 3,000 often turns tactical and slow, and that would not surprise me in this field. I expect last week's second 5000m pacer in Stockholm, Suleiman Simotwo, to assume the duties again. The pace lagged with him at the helm after he took over at 2000m, which had been covered in a swift 5:06. I suspect he'll try to go at least 1600 here at 60 second pace, but will fall a little short of that (in pace). None of these athletes have a huge reputation for front-running, although Mo Farah likely will feel he can not kick with the likes of Lagat and maybe Kiptoo. With the adrenaline from the crowd, I envision him striking from 800m or 1000m out only to be overtaken in the last 300 meters.
Prediction: 1. Kiptoo 2. Lagat 3.Farah 4. Mbishei 5. Rupp
Women's 100m Hurdles:
My laziness always wins out here, but you can rest assured in this race that you'd be better served picking names out of a hat than trying to predict this one. Sally Pearson was victorious in Stockholm, but viable candidates to dethrone her include Lolo Jones, Delloreen Ennis, Perdita Felicien, Priscila Lopes-Schliep, Tiffany Ofili and probably two or three others. A more compelling prediction would be where in the race the helpless TV announcer first mentions the name of the winner as emerging in the race. 60 meters into the race? 80 meters into the race? This event is just so wide open, and difficult to predict week-to-week.
Men's 400m Hurdles:
Headliner: American world-leader Bershawn Jackson (thoughts on him are in my Stockholm wrap) continues his sterling 2010 campaign against a stacked field with a couple of potential challengers. There is another convenient fan favorite for the London patrons in European 400m hurdle champion, Irishman David Greene, who ran 48.12 there for the title. Jackson's strongest competition should, however, come from Puerto Rican, Javier Culson, who defeated him to claim silver at last year's World Championships and ran 47.7 in May. His form recently has not been at that level, as Jackson easily dispatched him in Stockholm. Also, in the field is phenom and 2010 World Junior Champion and 2009 World Championship 4'th Placer, Jehue Gordon. African Champion L.J. Van Zyl and former World and Olympic Champion Felix Sanchez are also big names in the field.
Athletes and Storylines that may only Interest Me:
1. The future of the event, Trininidadian Jehue Gordon amazingly is still only 18 years old, and should challenge 48 seconds in the race tomorrow. If he breaks the barrier, one can't help but wonder about his potential to attack Kevin Young's 46.8 World Record and establish himself as the best of all time. 18 years old? Wow.
2. Last week as I noted, experienced great Felix Sanchez was an inexplicable victim of the airtight one-and-done false start rule and was disqualified. Keep an eye on his start this week. In an event that doesn't exactly put a pivotal premium on starting, he'll likely be as conservative as Rush Limbaugh and get out of the blocks as slow, too.
Prediction: 1. Jackson 2. Gordon 3. Greene 4. Culson 5. Sanchez
Men's 100m:
Headliners: Fresh off of his dismantling of the larger-than-life Jamaican, Usain Bolt (now out for the year), Tyson Gay takes on a deeper field including some overlooked talents. The #1 name after Gay is 2008 Bronze Medalist in the 100m and 200m, Walter Dix, who ran a steady 9.88 a few days ago to finish second in Luzern. Dix is clearly in form after a brief break from racing. Also in the field is Jamaican youngster Yohan Blake who ran 9.95 into a -0.3 headwind at a Paris track not renowned for sprinting.
Athletes and Storylines that might Interest Only me:
1. J-Mee Samuels, who I praised for running 10.03 in Luzern, has a big opportunity to break out in likely the biggest meet that he's competed at in years. Making the finals would be a nice accomplishment, and a sub 10 performance would be a fantastic sign.
2. The aforementioned, Yohan Blake, ran a phenomenal last 100 meters to nearly pip race favorite Tyson Gay in their matchup over 200m in Monaco. The 19.78 200m clocking leaves no doubt that there is room for improvement on his 9.93 personal best. It's worth noting that before this year, the 100 meters was Blake's best and primary event.
3. Beijing Olympics 4'th placer, Churandy Martina, also is entered in the field. Martina has not replicated his great Beijing race since, but a 20.03 200 meters about a month ago indicates he is in good form. He should be one to watch to sneak into the top 3. Last week's third placer finisher in Stockholm, Richard Thompson, has a similar story to Martina and will have a chance too.
4. The best way to guage Tyson Gay's start for and his ichances of a stellar time for me is to look at his relation to the fast-starting Michael Rodgers. Rodgers has not matched his 9.94 100m from last year, but he is still one of the best starters in the sport(2'nd place in the 2010 Indoor Worlds 60 meters).
Prediction: 1. Gay 2. Blake 3. Dix 4. Martina 5. Thompson
Men's 3000m Steeplechase:
Headliners: This one essentially boils down to World and Olympic Champion Kenyan Brimin Kipruto versus his countryman Paul Koech. After a disappointing 2009, Kipruto has had a near-flawless 2010 including an 8:00.90 personal best in Paris. Meanwhile, Mr. Consistency Paul Koech has had an excellent season as well including a win last week in 8:02 and a solid second place to Kipruto in that Paris race. The rest of the field truly pales in comparison to these two great Kenyans. By 400 meters, the others will likely be battling only for third place, unless there is a brave soul willing to risk an oh-so-painful last 1600 meters.
Race Dynamics: This steeple should come down to the wire, but it's hard to see Kipruto losing in the form he's in right now. He is a superb tactician, possesses a mighty kick, and should roll by Koech in the last lap of the race. If Koech is to defeat him, it will probably come as a result of the steady tempo that he will likely set once all the pacemakers drop. Can Koech pull away and hold off Kipruto? I can't see it.
Athletes and Storylines That Might Interest Only Me:
1. 2005 World Championship Bronze Medalist in the 5000, Craig Mottram, should make his long-awaited return to the big-time in this race. Mottram tuned up with a slow victory (7:50 in Watford) in another 3,000, but will certainly find this arena to be a totally different ballgame. While his mantle as the trailblazing white guy amongst the herds of East Africans has been assumed by Chris Solinsky, Mottram hopes to recover the form that saw him beat the likes of Tariku Bekele in an 8:03.50 2 mile victory in 2007, and contend for wins often on the 3000-5000m circuit from 2004-2007.
2. Two Kenyans with interesting backgrounds, Micah Kogo and Titus Mbishei, also are part of the field. Kogo set the world record for 10KM (27:01) on the roads in March of 2009. Mbishei was the silver medalist at the World Cross Country meet in 2009. Mbishei ran 13:00 for the 5,000 at Stockholm while Kogo ran 7:43 a little under a month ago. These guys have both shown phenomenal endurance and form, but the questions will be what their fitness is now, and if the shorter 3000m distance suits them.
Race Dynamics: The London 3,000 often turns tactical and slow, and that would not surprise me in this field. I expect last week's second 5000m pacer in Stockholm, Suleiman Simotwo, to assume the duties again. The pace lagged with him at the helm after he took over at 2000m, which had been covered in a swift 5:06. I suspect he'll try to go at least 1600 here at 60 second pace, but will fall a little short of that (in pace). None of these athletes have a huge reputation for front-running, although Mo Farah likely will feel he can not kick with the likes of Lagat and maybe Kiptoo. With the adrenaline from the crowd, I envision him striking from 800m or 1000m out only to be overtaken in the last 300 meters.
Prediction: 1. Kiptoo 2. Lagat 3.Farah 4. Mbishei 5. Rupp
Women's 100m Hurdles:
My laziness always wins out here, but you can rest assured in this race that you'd be better served picking names out of a hat than trying to predict this one. Sally Pearson was victorious in Stockholm, but viable candidates to dethrone her include Lolo Jones, Delloreen Ennis, Perdita Felicien, Priscila Lopes-Schliep, Tiffany Ofili and probably two or three others. A more compelling prediction would be where in the race the helpless TV announcer first mentions the name of the winner as emerging in the race. 60 meters into the race? 80 meters into the race? This event is just so wide open, and difficult to predict week-to-week.
Men's 400m Hurdles:
Headliner: American world-leader Bershawn Jackson (thoughts on him are in my Stockholm wrap) continues his sterling 2010 campaign against a stacked field with a couple of potential challengers. There is another convenient fan favorite for the London patrons in European 400m hurdle champion, Irishman David Greene, who ran 48.12 there for the title. Jackson's strongest competition should, however, come from Puerto Rican, Javier Culson, who defeated him to claim silver at last year's World Championships and ran 47.7 in May. His form recently has not been at that level, as Jackson easily dispatched him in Stockholm. Also, in the field is phenom and 2010 World Junior Champion and 2009 World Championship 4'th Placer, Jehue Gordon. African Champion L.J. Van Zyl and former World and Olympic Champion Felix Sanchez are also big names in the field.
Athletes and Storylines that may only Interest Me:
1. The future of the event, Trininidadian Jehue Gordon amazingly is still only 18 years old, and should challenge 48 seconds in the race tomorrow. If he breaks the barrier, one can't help but wonder about his potential to attack Kevin Young's 46.8 World Record and establish himself as the best of all time. 18 years old? Wow.
2. Last week as I noted, experienced great Felix Sanchez was an inexplicable victim of the airtight one-and-done false start rule and was disqualified. Keep an eye on his start this week. In an event that doesn't exactly put a pivotal premium on starting, he'll likely be as conservative as Rush Limbaugh and get out of the blocks as slow, too.
Prediction: 1. Jackson 2. Gordon 3. Greene 4. Culson 5. Sanchez
Men's 100m:
Headliners: Fresh off of his dismantling of the larger-than-life Jamaican, Usain Bolt (now out for the year), Tyson Gay takes on a deeper field including some overlooked talents. The #1 name after Gay is 2008 Bronze Medalist in the 100m and 200m, Walter Dix, who ran a steady 9.88 a few days ago to finish second in Luzern. Dix is clearly in form after a brief break from racing. Also in the field is Jamaican youngster Yohan Blake who ran 9.95 into a -0.3 headwind at a Paris track not renowned for sprinting.
Athletes and Storylines that might Interest Only me:
1. J-Mee Samuels, who I praised for running 10.03 in Luzern, has a big opportunity to break out in likely the biggest meet that he's competed at in years. Making the finals would be a nice accomplishment, and a sub 10 performance would be a fantastic sign.
2. The aforementioned, Yohan Blake, ran a phenomenal last 100 meters to nearly pip race favorite Tyson Gay in their matchup over 200m in Monaco. The 19.78 200m clocking leaves no doubt that there is room for improvement on his 9.93 personal best. It's worth noting that before this year, the 100 meters was Blake's best and primary event.
3. Beijing Olympics 4'th placer, Churandy Martina, also is entered in the field. Martina has not replicated his great Beijing race since, but a 20.03 200 meters about a month ago indicates he is in good form. He should be one to watch to sneak into the top 3. Last week's third placer finisher in Stockholm, Richard Thompson, has a similar story to Martina and will have a chance too.
4. The best way to guage Tyson Gay's start for and his ichances of a stellar time for me is to look at his relation to the fast-starting Michael Rodgers. Rodgers has not matched his 9.94 100m from last year, but he is still one of the best starters in the sport(2'nd place in the 2010 Indoor Worlds 60 meters).
Prediction: 1. Gay 2. Blake 3. Dix 4. Martina 5. Thompson
Men's 3000m Steeplechase:
Headliners: This one essentially boils down to World and Olympic Champion Kenyan Brimin Kipruto versus his countryman Paul Koech. After a disappointing 2009, Kipruto has had a near-flawless 2010 including an 8:00.90 personal best in Paris. Meanwhile, Mr. Consistency Paul Koech has had an excellent season as well including a win last week in 8:02 and a solid second place to Kipruto in that Paris race. The rest of the field truly pales in comparison to these two great Kenyans. By 400 meters, the others will likely be battling only for third place, unless there is a brave soul willing to risk an oh-so-painful last 1600 meters.
Race Dynamics: This steeple should come down to the wire, but it's hard to see Kipruto losing in the form he's in right now. He is a superb tactician, possesses a mighty kick, and should roll by Koech in the last lap of the race. If Koech is to defeat him, it will probably come as a result of the steady tempo that he will likely set once all the pacemakers drop. Can Koech pull away and hold off Kipruto? I can't see it.
Prediction: 1. Kipruto 2. Koech
Women's 1500m:
Women's 1500m:
Headliners: Stockholm winner, Nancy Langat, leads a deep and talented field including world leader and Stockholm runner-up, Anna Alminova. Langat showed last week that she has the finest kick in the world with a dominant stretch run to easily triumph over Alminova and many of this race's other competitors. Not participating in that race was crowd favorite and 2009 1500m Silver medalist, Lisa Dobriskey, who has had an up and down season including a sub 4 minute 1500(up) and a medalless European championships (down). Also, in the field are a couple of well-credentialed Americans, sub 4 runner Christin Wurth-Thomas and 2009 bronze medalist Shannon Rowbury.
Athletes and Storylines that may Interest Only me:
1. As documented before, the Nancy Langat quest to break 4 minutes will continue in this meet. It's almost unfathomable that an athlete of her caliber has not broken the barrier that so many lesser athletes (including members of this field) have. The ironic thing might be that a slower kicker's race will simultaneously benefit her chances in that endeavour, but damage her chances in the ultimate goal- winning the race. After all, the only time Langat has looked at all ordinary this season was when Alminova ran her 3:57 WL.
2. I said earlier this week, when referring to her frontrunning tactics, that old (but kinda new) habits die hard for Anna Alminova. Her tactics this week should be revealing. Will she try to take over right after the pacemaker drops off this week? Could she hang off and make her move late?
3. An interesting sub-plot is which Christin Wurth-Thomas shows up this week. It was perplexing to see her abandoning her typically aggressive running style last week in Stockholm. I think she will place herself in the mix early this week.
4. Steady performer Erin Donohue ran a solid 2:00 800 for a victory two days ago in a small meet. Her excellent season that includes a 4:03 clocking should not be overlooked, and I think an interesting piece of track drama is her feud with Shannon Rowbury's coach, John Cook. Cook and her split ways after he stated he did not believe she could break four minutes. Now Donohue has a chance to put his foot firmly in his mouth and beat his "chosen" athlete to boot.
5. 2007 and 2009 World Champion Maryam Yusuf Jamal has struggled thusfar in the 1500 this year. However, she is a very strong athlete with great endurance. It would not surprise me if she were to bust out of her funk and take victory even in this strong field.
Athletes and Storylines that may Interest Only me:
1. As documented before, the Nancy Langat quest to break 4 minutes will continue in this meet. It's almost unfathomable that an athlete of her caliber has not broken the barrier that so many lesser athletes (including members of this field) have. The ironic thing might be that a slower kicker's race will simultaneously benefit her chances in that endeavour, but damage her chances in the ultimate goal- winning the race. After all, the only time Langat has looked at all ordinary this season was when Alminova ran her 3:57 WL.
2. I said earlier this week, when referring to her frontrunning tactics, that old (but kinda new) habits die hard for Anna Alminova. Her tactics this week should be revealing. Will she try to take over right after the pacemaker drops off this week? Could she hang off and make her move late?
3. An interesting sub-plot is which Christin Wurth-Thomas shows up this week. It was perplexing to see her abandoning her typically aggressive running style last week in Stockholm. I think she will place herself in the mix early this week.
4. Steady performer Erin Donohue ran a solid 2:00 800 for a victory two days ago in a small meet. Her excellent season that includes a 4:03 clocking should not be overlooked, and I think an interesting piece of track drama is her feud with Shannon Rowbury's coach, John Cook. Cook and her split ways after he stated he did not believe she could break four minutes. Now Donohue has a chance to put his foot firmly in his mouth and beat his "chosen" athlete to boot.
5. 2007 and 2009 World Champion Maryam Yusuf Jamal has struggled thusfar in the 1500 this year. However, she is a very strong athlete with great endurance. It would not surprise me if she were to bust out of her funk and take victory even in this strong field.
Prediction: 1. Langat 2. Dobriskey 3. Alminova 4. Jamal 5. Donohue
Men's 800m:
Headliners: In life, sometimes we wish we could do a do-over. When a pacemaker inexplicably stays in lane 1 for 600m even as he slows down during an 800, that might sound like a good opportunity. When a 1:42.2 man has to drop out because of said pacemaker and a 3:30.9 gets swallowed up in the mess as well- we desperately need a do-over. Thankfully, we've got it. All of the principles are here again (including pacemaker Robinson) and hopefully a smoother run results. The favorite has to be Abubaber Kaki, who is the fastest man by a wide margin and has a great record this year, last week's race notwithstanding. European champion and opportunistic Stockholm winner Marcin Lewandowski runs again and will try to prove the last two races have been no fluke at all. Likewise, back to back second placer, Briton Michael Rimmer will try to do the same in front of the home crowd. Other athletes to look for include the already-referenced Andrew Wheating, 1:43 men Jackson Kivuna and Abraham Kiplagat, and perennial medalist Alfred Kirwa Yego, who's season has been somewhat disappointing.
Race Dynamics: As documented last week, I anticipate this field will once again give Abubaber Kaki a significant level of respect and let him do his thing at the front in the early-going. Following last week's disaster for him, I think he will take it out faster and run more aggressively with the pacers at least for 400 meters. This is a large field with 12 athletes in all (including rabbits) and I could see some serious chaos if he chooses any other route. The positioning at 200 meters will be critical for how this race plays out. If Kaki does not get out, look for a slow and tactical 800 that might favor kickers like Lewandowski, Rimmer, Wheating, and Yego. If it's fast, Kaki figures to have the advantage although five or six guys in here have the talent to join him and chase him into the low 1:43s or high 1:42s if he is not in full form. This race is fascinating because there are so many unknowns including the rabbiting, Kaki's plan, the field's aggressiveness vis a vis Kaki, and the form of athletes like Rimmer and Lewandowski in a quicker race.
Prediction: 1. Kaki 2. Lewandowski 3. Wheating 4. Rimmer 5. Kivuna
Men's 800m:
Headliners: In life, sometimes we wish we could do a do-over. When a pacemaker inexplicably stays in lane 1 for 600m even as he slows down during an 800, that might sound like a good opportunity. When a 1:42.2 man has to drop out because of said pacemaker and a 3:30.9 gets swallowed up in the mess as well- we desperately need a do-over. Thankfully, we've got it. All of the principles are here again (including pacemaker Robinson) and hopefully a smoother run results. The favorite has to be Abubaber Kaki, who is the fastest man by a wide margin and has a great record this year, last week's race notwithstanding. European champion and opportunistic Stockholm winner Marcin Lewandowski runs again and will try to prove the last two races have been no fluke at all. Likewise, back to back second placer, Briton Michael Rimmer will try to do the same in front of the home crowd. Other athletes to look for include the already-referenced Andrew Wheating, 1:43 men Jackson Kivuna and Abraham Kiplagat, and perennial medalist Alfred Kirwa Yego, who's season has been somewhat disappointing.
Race Dynamics: As documented last week, I anticipate this field will once again give Abubaber Kaki a significant level of respect and let him do his thing at the front in the early-going. Following last week's disaster for him, I think he will take it out faster and run more aggressively with the pacers at least for 400 meters. This is a large field with 12 athletes in all (including rabbits) and I could see some serious chaos if he chooses any other route. The positioning at 200 meters will be critical for how this race plays out. If Kaki does not get out, look for a slow and tactical 800 that might favor kickers like Lewandowski, Rimmer, Wheating, and Yego. If it's fast, Kaki figures to have the advantage although five or six guys in here have the talent to join him and chase him into the low 1:43s or high 1:42s if he is not in full form. This race is fascinating because there are so many unknowns including the rabbiting, Kaki's plan, the field's aggressiveness vis a vis Kaki, and the form of athletes like Rimmer and Lewandowski in a quicker race.
Prediction: 1. Kaki 2. Lewandowski 3. Wheating 4. Rimmer 5. Kivuna
Women's 200m:
Headliner: Ho-hum, should be another victory for Alysson Felix against an overmatched field. Perhaps, I'm underestimating 100m star Kerron Stewart, but she has not translated her sub 11 speed into a sub 22 since 2007 and does not compete in the event often. I'd look for Felix to win this late with an unremarkable time.
Women's 5000m:
Headliner: African 5000m champion Vivian Cheruiyot returns to action against a very good field including Sentayehu Ejigu, Tirunesh Dibaba, and Linet Masai. I'll look at this one in a lot more depth when I do my London cooldown, but I will say Cheruiyot has resembled Kenenisa Bekele in her peerless frontrunning this year. In the last couple months in all of her races I've seen, she has taken the reins with about 1600 to go and run a quick tempo. Her key rivals have sat on her until the last lap and made their moves then. Even if she has allowed them to pass temporarily, she's been able to pull away convincingly the last 200 and complete last laps in the 3000 within the 58-62 second range in fast races. It's been truly captivating, and I can't pick against her as good as Ejigu, Dibaba, and Masai are. Cheruiyot can run sub 14:20 in my view and if the pace is fast, she very well may mount a challenge at the world record.
Prediction: 1. Cheruiyot 2. Ejigu 3. Masai
Headliner: Ho-hum, should be another victory for Alysson Felix against an overmatched field. Perhaps, I'm underestimating 100m star Kerron Stewart, but she has not translated her sub 11 speed into a sub 22 since 2007 and does not compete in the event often. I'd look for Felix to win this late with an unremarkable time.
Women's 5000m:
Headliner: African 5000m champion Vivian Cheruiyot returns to action against a very good field including Sentayehu Ejigu, Tirunesh Dibaba, and Linet Masai. I'll look at this one in a lot more depth when I do my London cooldown, but I will say Cheruiyot has resembled Kenenisa Bekele in her peerless frontrunning this year. In the last couple months in all of her races I've seen, she has taken the reins with about 1600 to go and run a quick tempo. Her key rivals have sat on her until the last lap and made their moves then. Even if she has allowed them to pass temporarily, she's been able to pull away convincingly the last 200 and complete last laps in the 3000 within the 58-62 second range in fast races. It's been truly captivating, and I can't pick against her as good as Ejigu, Dibaba, and Masai are. Cheruiyot can run sub 14:20 in my view and if the pace is fast, she very well may mount a challenge at the world record.
Prediction: 1. Cheruiyot 2. Ejigu 3. Masai
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