Weltklasse DL Men's 5000m/3KST Previews, Predictions, Event Blurbs

Two absolutely loaded races stand out in tomorrow's DL meet: the men's 5000m and the men's 3000m Steeplechase. The men's 5000m stands out because of its sheer, incredible depth, the men's 3000mST because of the fact that it has every single global championship medalist in the steeplechase since 2004. Yes, you read that correctly every person that won a medal in 2004(Athens), 2005(Helsinki), 2007(Osaka), 2008(Beijing), and 2009(Berlin) is racing. There's other great stuff in the meet, too, which I will have blurbs on once I'm done previewing these two spectacular fields.

Men's 5000m: This is an amazing field that I believe could only be improved with the presence of Kenenisa Bekele and Bernard Lagat. Anyone else would be unnecessarily redundant. Here is the field with relevant credentials:

Imane Merga(ETH)- 12:53 two weeks ago in Stockholm for his second 12:53 of the season, 5 times of 13:00 or faster in the 5K, 6 top 3 finishes in the DL (2 wins)
Eliud Kipchoge(KEN)- 2003 World Champion 5K and many time medalist, 12:51 from early in the season, 12:54 in Stockholm 2 weeks ago, 4 top 5 finishes in the DL (1 runner up, 1 win), 12:46 PB
Dejen Gebremeskel(ETH)- 12:53 runner up two weeks ago in Stockholm, runner up at Prefontaine, 20 years of age and having a breakthrough year
Vincent Chepkok(KEN)- 12:51 early on in the season, 4 top 5 finishes on DL (1 win, 1 runner-up), 12:58 in Stockholm two weeks ago with a fall according to Chris Solinsky
Tariku Bekele (ETH)- 12:53.97 earlier in the season, 4 top 5 finishes on DL (one win, one runner-up), 12:52 PB
Mark Kiptoo(KEN)- 12:53 victory in Stockholm, African Champs Bronze Medal
Moses Masai(KEN)- World's Best road 10K winner in 27:19 in February, 12:50/26:49 PB's, WC Bronze medalist (10K)
Jacob Chesari(KEN)- 12:59 win in Heusden
Edwin Soi(KEN)- African Championships 5,000 Gold Medalist, 12:52 PR, Olympic Bronze Medal
Vincent Yator(KEN)- African Championships 5000 Silver Medalist
Sammy Alex Mutahi(KEN)- 13:00 SB, runner up in Rome DL
Lucas Rotich(KEN)- 12:55 SB, 4'th in Oslo DL

Chris Solinsky(USA)- 12:55.53 in Stockholm, one top 5 in DL, 26:59 PB in 10,000 in 2010

Mo Farah (Euro 5/10K double champ)

Titus Mbishei(13:00 5K this season),

David Kiprotich Bett(World Junior Champ -5K)

Galen Rupp (American 10,000m Champion, 27:10 10K)

This is a bold statement(literally and figuratively), but I will make the claim that finishing top 3 in this field is more impressive than winning a medal in the 2011 World Championships. In this race, I highlighted 9 well-credentialed Kenyans where there would be a maximum of 3 typically in a world championships. Also, there are guys who would often compete in the 10,000 meter at a global championship who are in this field including Moses Masai, Mo Farah, Galen Rupp, and Chris Solinsky(potentially).

Race Dynamics: The pacer will presumably be Kenyan Bethwell Birgen, who does not have a listed PB. I wouldn't be surprised to see World Junior Champion, Bett also provide some pace-making. The pace here will be absolutely critical. The field is so mammoth and so competitive that any lag in the pace will cause some serious congestion. The traffic will be thicker than 5 PM on route 128, and a slow lead-out could lead to lots of accidents to continue my analogy. I assume we will have a pacemaker at the front until about 3,000 meters where the onus will likely fall on some of the Kenyans to set a pace. Featuring prominently at the front I'm sure, will be Eliud Kipchoge and Moses Masai (if in-form).

If the race comes down to a battle of kicks in the last 400 meters, a look at recent history should provide a decent guide for who the likely champions are. Imane Merga has been a consistent contender in all of the DL races and has a frenetic kick that is one of the best. His countryman, Dejen Gebremeskel, has been an impressive runner up in his last two Diamond League outings. The man who edged Gebremeskel in Stockholm, Mark Kiptoo, is not too far removed from that breakthrough win and it would surprise no one to see him in the finishing chase again. I also would not count out Kipchoge who might preserve his energy a little better this week and have livelier legs than he had in Stockholm. Additonal expected participants in the stretch finish are Tariku Bekele and Edwin Soi who's recent African Championship 5K title is better than any DL victory. Some dark horses include the two Vincents, Chepkok and Yator, who both had sub-par races in Stockholm for understandable reasons. Yator was thrust into the lead at 3000 and had difficulty running in the pack before then, but his silver medal at the African Championships indicates that he is a sub 12:55 guy in waiting. Chepkok, meanwhile was competitive for the victory in every race, before he fell last week according to Chris Solinsky.

The Americans: So how will Americans Chris Solinsky and Galen Rupp do? First of all, in terms of race competitiveness I think Solinsky will be up there, but I think inevitably 3 or 4 guys will have a better finish than him. Call me a cynic, but I just see the power of numbers here. Against any one guy, Chris is a threat, but against this many good guys? Hard for me to see him better than 4'th. As for the time, I am very optimistic here. I think he will be able to find a good spot behind some of the aggressive Africans and come through in fast, but doable fractions. I'm going to guess the pacemaking will not be perfect, but very well may be a little better than in Stockholm. Thus I predict a 12:53 for Chris Solinsky and a 6'th place finish.

As for Rupp, he really came oh-so-close to PR'ing big in Stockholm before he tumbled to the track. He was hovering somewhere around 13:00-13:05 pace at that point, and I have to say he looked pretty comfortable. He was not on Solinsky's level as he could not go with whatever pace was being run at the front, but rather had to run his own tempo and hope the pace came back to him. To his credit, in the slower third and fourth kilometers the pace did come back to him and he attached himself to the back end of the lead pack. To his discredit, I don't think he could have shifted pace like the front guys did towards the end, had he not fallen. I'd be surprised if we see any closing lap 55's out of Rupp. Thus my prediction for Rupp is 13:04.

Overall Race Predictions: 1. Soi (upset special) 2. Merga 3. Gebremeskel 4. Kipchoge 5. Chepkok 6. Solinsky 7. T. Bekele 8. Chesari 9. Kiptoo 10. Masai

Winning Time 12:49!

Men's 3000mST: In this field are Ezekiel Kemboi (KEN), Said Saeef Shaheen (QAT), Brimin Kipruto (KEN), Richard Mateelong (KEN), Paul Kipsiele Koech (KEN), Bob Tahri (FRA), Mahiediene Benabbad (FRA).

Who are these fine gentlemen you might ask(alright it's unlikely you'd ask, but play along)?:

Well here you go-

2004 Olympic final: 1. Ezekiel Kemboi 2. Brimin Kipruto 3. Paul Koech

2005 WC Final: 1. Said Saeef Shaheen 2. Kemboi 3. Kipruto

2007 WC Final: 1. Kipruto 2. Kemboi 3. Richard Mateelong

2008 Olympic Final: 1. Kipruto 2. Mahiediene Benabbad 3. Mateelong

2009 WC Final: 1. Kemboi 2. Mateelong 3. Tahri

One word: wow. Every single relevant (a medalist by this definition) steeplechaser of the past 6 years is in this field. Even better, all are in form with the possible exception of Shaheen.

Race Dynamics: If this one goes out fast, the 8 minute barrier should be in serious jeopardy. 2010 European Champion, Benabbad, owns an 8:06 PB that should be destroyed in this race while the rest of the athletes I've mentioned are either sub 8 men historically or very close to that fast. Last week, traditional gun-to-tape hammering frontrunner Koech waited until 1000 meters to go to unleash a potent drive to the line. The heavy pace exacted its toll on former Champions Kemboi and Kipruto. Kipruto, in particular, had uncharacteristically costly struggles with the water jump and barriers at the nearly-suicidal pace that Koech set. Kemboi dealt with the pace a little bit better, but was well beaten, too. It's important to note that that race did not feature a pacemaker. This one likely will, and Koech will probably take on the work (as is his custom) after the pacemaker drops with the deepest and most talented field in steeplechase history giving close chase. Kemboi, if he's on will try to seize the lead at 400 meters and run the legs out of everyone else. Kipruto and Mateelong generally make later runs and catch athletes in the last 200m. Benabbad is a bit more aggressive than his countryman Tahri who simply tries to hang onto the Kenyans as long as he can without mixing it up unnecessarily.

Predictions: 1. Kemboi 2. Mateelong 3. Kipruto 4. Benabbad 5. Koech 6. Tahri

- As for American Dan Huling, I don't even know if having this many fast guys will help or hamper him. Is he really going to try to stick with them if they run a 2:39 first kilometer?

Blurbs:

1. Women's 400m Hurdles: Jamaican Kaliese Spencer who made last week's DL competitors look like a sorry group of high schoolers will try to do the same thing again. Russian Natalia Antyukh was part of that group despite a European Championship winning 52.92 only a few weeks before. She tries to redeem herself in this race.

2. Women's 100m: Veronica Campbell-Brown makes her return against Carmelita Jeter, who I'm sure is trying to race better than last week to avoid any more Derek Jeter potshots from yours truly. Kelly-Ann Baptiste and Sherone Simpson could contend as well, but Campbell Brown should win this with no one else running too well recently.

3. Men's 400m: A complete rematch of last week's contest which you can read all about in the wrap. Adding potential intrigue is Angelo Taylor, who could open some eyes considering his 44.0 PB is well under the world leading time. Still, I imagine it will be Wariner versus Gonzales again with the same result. Another intriguing subplot is the weather (yeah, really!). If it's nice, maybe a time that starts with 43. is possible.

4. Men's 200m: Upstart Jamaican youngster Yohan Blake has a showdown with Wallace Spearmon. Blake has to be the favorite after his 9.89 clocking in London last week and his 19.78 earlier in the season where he nearly caught Tyson Gay. Spearmon does have the experience edge, and the ace in the hole with his amazing finishing ability. Still, I think Blake is too good right now, and Spearmon will come up 5 meters short in catching him in this race. I'll also have my eyes on the X-Man, Xavier Carter, to see if he can attack the 20 second barrier in his comeback season.

5. Women's 400m: Another complete rematch. Got to like Felix as she'll be fresher than she was last week when she pulled off the 200/400 double. Firova and Dunn will no doubt be ready for some revenge in this one.

6. Women's 1500: All of the usual characters are here, though I'll note that Gelete Burka who was not in London is in the field. One athlete to watch is 800 specialist Janeth Jepkosgei who is moving up for this race. I don't see any reason why she couldn't be a very good 1500m runner. Anyhow, it's hard to bet against Nancy Langat and hey she might break 4 here. Alminova, Burka, and Dobriskey would be the next 3 on paper, but there could be surprised with such a deep field.

7. Men's 110mH: I thought I heard Ryan Brathwaite was in this, but I don't see him on the startlists. If he's not in it than it will be the David Oliver dominance display again. If he is, it probably will be, anyhow.

8. Women's 100mH: Looks like Jones vs. Lopes-Schliep, although this event as always is impossible to predict. It's not a DL race, so it's a little less deep and crazy than usual.