Onto part two of the preview. If you haven't looked at the Day 1 edition check the post below. Since, I write too much let's get straight to it:Women's 800m:
Headliner: 2010 World leader and revelation, American Alysia Johnson takes on a loaded field including 2005 World Championship Gold Medalist and Beijing Olympic Silver Medalist Janeth Jepkosgei, British Mid Distance hope, 2009 Worlds Silver Medalist Jenny Meadows (Gold if you remove "a Secret Man? Yes" aka Caster Semenya), 2010 European Champion and World Indoor Champion Mariya Savinova, and 2010 European Silver medalist, Yvonne Hak. Johnson ran her phenomenal 1:57.34 in impressive fashion- destroying the field in Monaco in her typical wire-to-wire fashion. Meanwhile, Savinova has had an excellent season with a strong come-from-behind victory over a top-flight field in Eugene and her aformentioned championship successes.
Athlete and Storylines that Might Interest only me:
1. Training partners Morgan Uceny and Anna Pierce are also in this field. Uceny has had the better season by far in the 1500, but Pierce has more experience running the 800 in a strong field like this. Their personal bests are close, and it should be interesting to see how much they mix it up if they are running close to eachother in the race.
2. Seesaw runner Maggie Vessey also will compete in the field, and likely will be 20 meters back at 400m. Vessey is a slow-starting even-paced runner, and this race figures to go out in the 56-58 second range. Watch from 400-600m to see what type of day it is for Vessey. If she's moving up then, even if she is running in the dreaded lane 2 or 3, it could be a very good day for her. If she's staying even, "trick or treat" Vessey will have given us the trick.
3. Kenyan Janeth Jepkosgei has had an up-and-down season in what had been up to this year a remarkably consistent career. Jepkosgei is an aggressive runner, but she is also very thin and vulnerable to the physicality that can take place in the two-lap race. If she can avoid some of the elbows and shoves and execute her race, there are few who can match her speed and endurance. However, a crowded twelve women field makes this anything but a given. Watch her ease in navigating to the front and running in the pack to see what type of race she's in for.
Race Dynamics: World Leader Alysia Johnson's strategy is consistent and uncompromising. She runs a quick, but manageable early pace from the front. She boldly front-runs after the pacemaker drops, and dares anyone to try and pass her. This season, she's been able to marshal her energy well and hold off her challengers during the fateful last 100 meters. Mariya Savinova, conversely, has no problem with laying off the front until the last 200 where she can make a nice move to snatch victory. It's the classic leader versus kicker confrontation. Janeth Jepkosgei has employed both strategies in the past, but I expect her to let Johnson lead until 250 meters to go at least before she makes her bid to take the win. If the pace is slow, there are some outstanding kickers in here who can win 1:58-1:59 races with 28-29 second last 200s including Meadows, Pierce, and Vessey. I don't think Johnson will allow a slow tempo to develop the second lap, so if the pacemaker does her job it should be a 3 woman race.
Predictions: 1. Savinova 2. Johnson 3. Jepkosgei 4. Meadows 5. Hak
Men's 400m:
Headliner: He might be the former World and Olympic Champion. However, a seemingly vulnernable alpha-dog Jeremy Wariner should have his hands full with World Leader, Jermaine Gonzales of Jamaica. Teammate Ricardo Chambers could also contend as he ran a more than respectable 44.54 to come in second to Gonzales about three weeks ago.
Athletes and Storylines that may Interest Only me:
1. Was Kevin Borlee's gold at the European Championships a shock that no one really anticipated? Yes- most thought he would only get silver in the family-only 400m Championships considering the superior season of his brother. Was his gold a fluke? Well, we should find out here when Borlee faces stingier competition and almost certainly will have to run in the mid 44's to have a chance.
2. American Jeremy Wariner has certainly had a lot of time to single-mindedly train after he beat Jermaine Gonzales by 14 hundrenths in Paris. The question is will he come out in superior fitness ready to attack the 44's once more, or will he come out and be at a disadvantage against the more race-sharp Gonzales. Wariner's last 100 meters, which used to be the strength of his race, have betrayed him this year and this will be a pivotal are to improve if he wants to regain his 2004-2007 dominant form.
3. The Jamaican 400m National Record is tenuously held by Gonzales, but certainly Ricardo Chambers would love to have it. In the last segment of this race, it might not be only bragging rights that are at stake, but a coveted national record, too.
Prediction: 1. Wariner 2. Gonzales 3. Chambers 4. Bingham 5. Borlee
Women's 400m:
Headliner: All-around sprint queen Alysson Felix will attempt to pull off the double against a strong field including Stockholm 400m and European Championships winner Tatyana Firova, American champion Debbie Dunn, African Champion Amantle Montsho, and perennial Jamaican contenders, the Williams Sisters(bad joke, I don't think Novlene and Shericka are related).
Race Dynamics:As good as Felix is, I don't like her chances against a deep field, where it is more than likely that at least one 49 high/50 low type athlete will have a standout race. Firova, Dunn, and the Williams did not exactly look like world-beaters last week, but I'm going to take the field in this one because it's not like Felix did in the 200, either. I like how Shericka Williams consistently gets out hard, and I think that against a possible tired Felix she can hold on just enough to take it in a low 50s time.
Prediction: 1. S. Williams 2. Felix 3. Firova 4. Dunn 5. Montsho
Men's Mile:
Race Headliner: A trio of world-leading Africans Silas Kiplagat, Amine Laalou, and Augustine Choge headline a deep field with some intriguing names. Included in this field is 20 year old Aussie sensation Ryan Gregson who ran 3:31.0 for a massive personal best in his last race. Also, running is consistent circuit racer and Oslo Dream Mile winner, Mekonnen Gebromehdin who owns a solid 3:49 personal best.
Athletes and Storylines that may Only Interest me:
1. Americans Lopez Lomong and Leonel Manzano also go in the field, and will likely try to mix it up with with five names listed above. I've always thought that Manzano has the competitive strength and fearlessness to compete with athletes owning superior PB's, and I think he can prove it here with top 5 or top 3 finish. His unimpressive 3:53 mile PR should be improved either way. As for Lomong, I believe he will go out at the front, and I would like to see if he can hang with the kicks of the leaders. I'd love to see him be able to close with the best in the world in the last 200m. Keep an eye on the positioning and aggressiveness of these two early to see how they attack a strong field.
2. The tactics of Augustine Choge will be an interesting story to watch. He loves to go with and then take on a hard pace. This strategy has rewarded him often with great time, but also punished him with difficult defeats in the finishing stretch of races. In the mile, the pacemakers may leave him even more to do, and I will watch closely to see how closely he follows them and then how assertive he is when the race opens up. I commented on Choge's so-so 5000 last week, and I hope that the reason for it was that he's improved his gears in the 1500/mile and can summon a world-class finish this week. Does Choge not have a kick or does he not have a kick because he leads it out so hard due to his belief that he doesn't have a kick(a classic self-fulfilling prophecy)?
3. Can Silas Kiplagat and Ryan Gregson back up their phenomenal 1500 performances in Monaco last month? Kiplagat finished a disappointed fourth at the African Championships behind an excellent top 3. This is Gregson's first race back as far as I know, and it should be intriguing to see how confidently he runs. I think before Monaco, he would be content to run in 10'th or so the first 880 yards, but now he will go for more. These two young phenoms will begin to try to prove themselves on the World stage in this race.
4. Moroccan Amine Laalou has had a great season including a silver medal at the African Championships. He is an 800/1500 guy, and I'd like to see if the extra distance of the mile hinders him at all. This guy is a gold-medal threat in the 1500 with excellent closing speed and enough strength to run 3:29 for the 1500.
Race Dynamics: American David Krummenacker is the pace maker and I anticipate a pretty good job (around 1:54 at 880 yards). After that, I think Augustine Choge and Mekonnen Gebrehmehdin will take it on. I expect Amine Laalou and Silas Kiplagat to be lurking right on their shoulder with Lopez Lomong and Ryan Gregson just behind them. I think Choge will assume the lead at 400 and will keep it up for awhile before Kiplagat and Laalou get the better of him at the very end.
Prediction: 1. Kiplagat 2. Laalou 3. Choge 4. Gregson 5. Manzano
Women's 100m:
Headliner: I'll admit I'm not too excited about this one as the only name that really jumps out at me is Carmelita Jeter. I suppose Olympic silver medalist Sherone Simpson could also pose a serious challenge if she was in top form. I think without Jamaicans Veronica Campbell-Brown, the toothache-suffering Shelly Ann Frasor, and Kerron Stewart this field lacks considerable luster. That being said, if the usually poor-starting Jeter gets off to a good start her time could provide an exciting moment.
Prediction: 1. Jeter 2. Baptiste 3. Simpson
Men's 110m Hurdles:
Headliner: As polite and humble as American David Oliver is, this race really is all about him and his pursuit of a world record or elite time. With the ailing Dayron Robles not competing, no one in this field should challenge Oliver even if he has a slow start as often occurs. Oliver is pure power and muscle, and when he starts out right he has the ability to run amazing times. He is so powerful that hitting hurdles appears to barely affect him. We can only hope the London wind is cooperative and stagnant and does not wreak havoc with Oliver's run. Also, I have to point out that the Oliver's lean is one of the more breathtaking finishes we have in track. Every time he almost goes completely horizontal, nearly toppling over from the contortion of his body. I think the track is probably fortunate that he regains his balance and his mass doesn't go sprawling into it.
Time Prediction: 12.91 Oliver for the win with a slow-ish start
Blurbs:
Men's 200m- Wallace Spearmon and Churandy Martina go in a watered-down 200 meters missing almost all of the big names Bolt, Gay, Blake and Dix.
Women's 3000m ST: It's Zarudneva vs. Chemos Round 2. The African and European Champions wage battle again, and I have no idea how this one will go. This is 3 straight weeks of steeplechases for the two of them, which to me seems a little ambitious.
Womens 400mH: Kaliese Spencer who dispatched a world-record seeking Lashinda Demus (not racing here) is the favorite in this one. Nikiesha Wilson and Sheena Tosta could challenge her.
Alright folks, enjoy what should be a greet meet! You probably won't hear from me with my cooldown until Sunday as I will be away for the weekend and competing on a stage with considerably less spectators and TV coverage. Have a great weekend, and thanks for reading.
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