The subject of American 1500m running is unabashedly near and dear to my heart. Check out this column if you want see my thoughts from a few weeks ago on American medal prospects: http://viewfromlane9.blogspot.com/2010/08/generational-gap-american-1500m-running.htmlMen's 1500m headliner: While the triumphant return of the best 1500 meter runner in the land, Asbel Kiprop, registered as no shock, a tantalizing stretch run by American Leonel Manzano to close off a one second personal best and obliterate the rest of the field was hardly anticipated. The diminutive American inexorably gained on the 2008 Olympic Champion Kiprop causing radical thoughts to crop into the minds of middle-distance fans everywhere. Could Manzano have done the unthinkable and beaten Kiprop had he kicked earlier?(I say no, read why at the bottom) Is Manzano a serious medal threat for years to come?(Yes, I believe, though I did so cautiously even before the race)
Manzano's competitiveness against athletes Kiprop and Augustine Choge is nothing new, as he finished within tenths of Kiprop in Gateshead. However, in that race Kiprop ran strongest over the last 50 meters and left no doubt who was the best. In addition, that was a 3:33 race with little depth. Yesterday, Manzano was running fastest at the finish and closing with every compact and barely visible stride. His kick, while not enough to catch Kiprop, blistered a world class field including Mekonnen Gebremehdin, Choge, and European Champion Arturo Casado.
Race Dynamics: Like his countrywoman Nancy Langat, Asbel Kiprop seems to win every time out without running fast times. Over the last 3 years, there are probably a half dozen races that were won in 3:29 or 3:30, and Kiprop has for whatever reason been absent for all of them. This race had no fewer than three rabbits, yet none could contribute a sub 58 second circuit after the first well-paced one. David Krummenacker pace the first 400 in a perfectly-done 54 seconds(55 for the field). The pace slowed considerably to a 58.29 split that combined with Augustine Choge's uncharacteristically passive running behind the pacemakers spelled doom for a 3:29 or 3:30 race. All of the contenders in the field were in good position at 400 meters to go with Choge as expected in the lead. Perfectly placed was Kiprop in second with Mekonnen Gebremehdin, Daniel Komen, and Abdelaati Iguider in a bunch just behind. Tucked a few steps back in 7'th place or so in an inconspicuous position was American Leonel Manzano. Choge led the field through with a 58.06 clocking and 2:51 split. Over the next 100 meters, Kiprop made his bid and easily slipped by Choge with 200 meters to go. Kiprop was not challenged by Choge or anyone directly behind him and built a comfortable gap on the turn. Meanwhile, Manzano detached himself from his position of 6'th place on the rail and uncorked his signature kick that netted him numerous NCAA Championships and Penn Relay wheels at Texas, a surprise berth on the 2007 World Championship 1500 squad, and here his most exciting performance as a professional. Behind Manzano, Choge and Gebremehdin ran fairly even with eachother appearing to stand still when compared with Manzano's brilliant finish. Kiprop held on to win by about two tenths of second while Manzano was rewarded with a 3:32.37 personal best.
More Thoughts on Manzano: I've done some rather rudimentary split analysis on Manzano and I think the most interesting tidbits are these two nuggets:
1. Manzano's last 400 was ~55.2 seconds and his last 200 was ~27.0 seconds
2. Manzano gained about ~0.6 seconds on Asbel Kiprop in the last 100 meters or thereabouts of the race.
1. This one stands out immediately because it shows that Manzano has even more time to chop off his personal best as his pacing was rather uneven(~55, 58, 58, 40 roughly). The fact that he could have a 3:31 PB or so is less important to me than the fact that he runs a 3:32 race like a 3:31 or 3:30 guy (Choge or Gebremehdin both qualify and he trounced them). Manzano has always had great closing ability and his fitness has risen by such leaps and bounds that he can close in signature fashion even in fast races. When he was a 3:33 high guy making the World Championship finals in a somewhat more tactical 1500 semifinal there might have been reason to doubt him as a contender in faster races. After this race, there is no doubt that if Manzano can navigate the rounds well and get a clean run in the finals, no matter what type of race it is he will be one of the stronger closers.
2. Even more impressive than Manzano's excellent last lap was his startling last 100 meters of the race. This strength is particularly important because many of the 1500 contenders have not distinguished themselves in this area of the race. Augustine Choge and Mekonnen Gebremehdin have never been known for their stretch runs. Emerging star Silas Kiplagat has shown some promise in this area, but he was outrun in the Kenyan championships and African championships by Kiprop there. If Manzano can count on this part of the race, Bernard Lagat showed last year that even if he is boxed and the race goes far from planned, a strong last 100 meters can nab a bronze. One more impressive thing about this tidbit is that Manzano was really only flat-out the last 100. The 27.0/55.2 negative split reflect this and Manzano was probably hovering around 12.8-13.0 for the last 100 meters of the race. That is fantastic for his prospects in championship races where place is much more important than time.
So where does this all leave Manzano? Personally, I think the key thing is to preserve energy in the rounds and get in the top half of the field for the first half of a global championship final. He certainly has the tools to medal, and if others falter like Kiprop did last year in the 1500 final and Kamel is doing this year with a dreadful season, the path becomes even easier for him. My biggest fear for him is that he gets off the line poorly in a final and has to shove his way into contention, thus spoiling his own kick. The most encouraging thing about my whole analysis is that after watching him yesterday I honestly believe a medal is not blind chance, but increasingly under his control.
Athletes and Storylines that may Interest Only Me:
1. In the one step forward, two steps back dept.: Mekonnen Gebremehdin and Arturo Casado had disappointing races after personal bests in Berlin. Casado struggled from the get-go and ran a miserable 3:37, while Gebremehdin ran a tepid 3:33 barely responding to Manzano or Kiprop's kicks.
2. Manzano's move at 120 to go or so was closely followed by Brit and former Florida State Seminole Thomas Lancashire who ran a very solid 3:33.96. Lancashire quietly has improved steadily since graduating, and undoubtedly his strong last 250 meters would have looked more impressive had it not been for Manzano's run. In fact at 150 to go, it looked like Lancashire was primed to go past Manzano before Leo opened up and blew him and everyone else away.
3. Two guys who were once very good Daniel Kipchirchir Komen and Abdelaati Iguider have quietly faded into obscurity. A few years ago you would expect the two of them to be running right near Augustine Choge, but now it seems they finish non-competitively in the 3:33-3:37 range with regularity.
4. Did Manzano's timing cost him the win versus Choge? In my view, no. I know it's tempting to cite how much he was closing and so on, but we have to remember that Kiprop had a comfortable margin at 50 meters and likely believed himself to be secure with the victory. I don't think we saw Kiprop flat-out at the end. For everyone's favorite "had the race been twenty meters longer" I'd rebut then Kiprop would have kicked some 20 meters later. For the argument that Manzano could have left earlier and conserved less, I'd argue that Kiprop had another gear to use had he been challenged. Call me a pessimist or just too confident in Kiprop, but I think he had that one as good as Manzano was.
Thanks for reading and let me know what you think! Rieti Preview will be up tonight. No promises on when the best of the rest wrap will be up, but it might be Sunday or Monday.
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