"New York!!!!Concrete jungle where dreams are made of...These streets will make you feel brand new"- Empire State of Mind by Jay Z ft. Alicia KeysOK, so it's probable that Jay Z and Alicia Keyes didn't have a bunch of skimpily-attired elite runners racing on 5'th Avenue in mind when they glorified the city streets in their oh-so-overplayed anthem about New York City. No matter. This year, the New York Road Runners, assembled two unusually strong and deep fields to contest the world's biggest and best road mile this Sunday afternoon on 5'th Avenue. To break down the men's and women's races, I am going to use fair gambling odds to assess the favorites, contenders and dark horses on both the men's and women's sides.
Favorites:
Bernard Lagat-
What's to like: Lagat is an experienced and savvy racer who always seems to find himself in the right place at the exactly right time. Once he's positioned himself adeptly, he can rely on one of the most reliable kicks in middle distance history. Lagat is also particularly adept in non-rabbited races and easily won a pair of them (3,000 and 5,000) at the Continental Cup just a few weeks ago. His overall form on the season was excellent with two outstanding American records in the 3000 and 5000. The man also knows something about racing miles in New York. He has an outstanding record of success at Wanamaker Miles at the Millrose Games. The 2009 bronze medalist in the 1500, Lagat is still going quite strongly into his mid 30's and carries with him years of tactical brilliance and perfected timing.
Red Flags: Ever get the feeling "experienced and savvy" really are buzzwords and nice ways to say "old and geezerly". Lagat has had a seminal campaign in the 3000 up, but thusfar his 1500/mile races have been mostly flops. He was beaten badly in Eugene, OR at the Pre Classic where he ran a pedestrian 3:54 mile, and in Europe he didn't fare much better in a series of 1500s. He has only run 3:32.51 on the season, which does not compare favorably with the seasonal best of Amine Laalou, for one. Is there enough speed in those old, creaky legs or should Lagat move up to the 5000 for good? Lagat's performance here might be a good indicator.
Odd: 3:2 (40% shot of winning)
Shannon Rowbury
What's to Like: Rowbury won the 5'th Avenue Mile last year against a stellar field including Lisa Dobriskey and Christin Wurth-Thomas, who are not competing in this year's edition. Against a weaker field, Rowbury figures to have a great shot to repeat as champion. Her 2010 season has been solid if unspectacular. In Europe she consistently finished in the top 5 of her 1500 races, and she ran a stellar 8:31 3000 meters as well. Her strength could be a big asset in this field, as the finish may very well come down to who can outlast the others in a prolonged final kick. Rowbury is a consistent racer as well with a solid kick, and enough patience to unleash it at the right time.
Red Flags: Rowbury had her struggles at the USA outdoor championships where she only finished third. In addition, her gap on some competitors in the field like Erin Donohue and Morgan Uceny has evaporated as they've had breakthrough this year at the 1500m distance while she has not improved. Another concern is Rowbury's sub-par 800m speed, which is bested by numerous athletes in the field.
Odds: 7:3 (30% shot of winning)
Top Contenders:
Amine Laalou:
What's to Like: Laalou has had a great 2010 as he's narrowed his focus in on the 1500, and made some tremendous strides. He ran a sensational time of 3:29.53 for the 1500 in Monaco, and showed his tactical prowess with a victory in the unpaced 1500m race at the Continental Cup. Laalou has all the tools to be an excellent racer. His running style is measured and patient, and he's shown good speed and a steady kick in his Diamond League performances as well as in unpace races like his runner-up finish to Asbel Kiprop at the African Championships and the aforementioned triumph at the Continental Cup. Laalou has shown some aptitude at the mile distance where he finished second to Asbel Kiprop (not entered) at the Prefontaine Classic back in July. Laalou has 1:43 800 speed, a 3:29 personal best and a steady amount of confidence entering the race.
Red Flags: For all of Laalou's accomplishments on the year, his win at the Continental Cup is his only victory at the 1500/mile distance on the year and he is still a novice at the event. This year, he has finished second some 5 times. In his last race at the mile distance in London, he was overly passive and was rendered a non-factor. Laalou is still relatively inexperienced at racing the mile, and the nuances of a road mile could come into play as well. If Laalou lost some of his focus while running on the track in London, a road mile could present even more challenges in the middle portion of the race when the finish is not visible and it's easier to drift. Laalou has also been sharp (1:43.7 800) since mid-May and there's a possibility a grueling season may be wearing on his legs or that he is past his peak.
Odds: 3:1 (25% shot of winning)
Morgan Uceny
What's to Like: Uceny has moved up to the 1500 with great success this year and has lowered her personal best to a very respectable and competitive 4:02.40. In addition, even with her greater focus on the 15, her 800 running has taken off and she has shattered the 2 minute barrier with an impressive 1:58.67 clocking. Uceny's racing style is conservative and smart, and she has displayed good closing speed in races like the Diamond League meet in Gateshead where she finished second.
Red Flags: Despite a season of consistently good times, Uceny has only finished better than 5'th in a major 1500 once. She has also had some trouble with some recent DNF's as she can tend to get stuck running too close to other runners. In a road race, this should not be as much of a problem, but if it gets physical at all Uceny gets bumped off her spot quite easily. The mile distance might also be a hindrance to Uceny, whose speed is her strength. If she can only convert 1:58 speed into a 4:02, the extra 100 or so meters might hamper her relative to some of the stronger athletes.
Odds: 4:1 (20% Shot of Winning)
Leonel Manzano:
What's to Like: Manzano has had an excellent season both in terms of competitiveness and personal bests. He's used his phenomenal kick off of a fast pace to finish in the top 3 in strong Diamond League competition three separate times. His PB for the 1500 of 3:32.37 came in a strong runner-up finish in Brussels to Asbel Kiprop where he was closing at a pace no one could come close to matching. Manzano has a great change of pace, and the wide-open road can hide his vulnerability to being jostled around by more physical competitors.
Red Flags: Manzano is a classic 800/1500 runner, and the mile distance will test his endurance and concentration. In London, though he finished a creditable third, he allowed some of the stronger athletes to gain significant distance on him in the middle of the race. Against Bernard Lagat, he can not repeat this mistake. In addition, an uneven or unpredictable pace can negatively affect Manzano who is at his best off a predictable and even pace. One more concern is that Manzano has lost some form since Brussels, as his 3'rd place effort in the Continental Cup was incommensurate with the way he was racing beforehand.
Odds: 6:1 (~14% shot of winning)
Erin Donohue:
What's to Like: Donohue has improved her personal best across the board, and has even taken down Shannon Rowbury on occasion this season. She is a tough competitor, and ran a high quality 1500 in Rieti (4:03.49) just 3 weeks ago, which indicates good sharpness in a long season. Donohue is fearless, and she may try to run away with it with a long kick. If the race is slow, she is dangerous because of her strength and power, which she demonstrated in London. A non-running factor that might help her is that being a New Jersey native, the crowd will likely behind her.
Red Flags: Donohue has very few wins on the resume and has often been in the shadow of former training partner, Shannon Rowbury. She has shown some chinks in that armor by beating her in London and at the USA championships, but Rowbury has typically had her number. In addition, Donohue has commonly been run down in unpaced races, and needs to time her kick correctly if she hopes to hold off the field.
Odds: 6:1 (14% shot of winning)
Dark Horses blurbs:
Nick Willis- The 2008 Olympic silver medalist and 2008 5'th Avenue Mile winner may have an underwhelming seasonal best of 3:35, but his training was at the infantile level then, and it since has likely been ratcheted up. Willis, unlike most of his competitors, has further designs on the season with his Commonwealth Games title on the line about a week after this race. When in top form, Willis is a patient and intelligent tactician with an underrated last 50 meters burst of speed. How close is Willis to his best, though? His preparation has been modest, and a mile versus a top-flight field like this will require both top-level fitness and sharpness. It's noteworthy that Willis will be fresher than nearly every other athlete in the field because of his truncated season, which could work to his advantage.
Odds: 9:1 (10% shot of winning)
Kilkidan Gezahegne- You might be wondering who this is. Gezahegne is, in fact, your 2010 World Indoor Champion at the 1500. She is also only 19 years old. While this might sound like the resume of a favorite, she is a perfect dark horse as she has not raced since her gold-medal performance indoors for mysterious reasons. Was she hurt? Was she prudently taking a break after a breakout indoor campaign? I can't be sure, but at her best Gezahegne could take the title here.
Odds: 6:1 (14% shot of winning)
Alan Webb- Lord, would it be a story if Webb crashed through with a victory here? I think letsrun would explode and the Alan Webb bandwagon would have to establish a waiting list longer than that of the Green Bay Packers. Much as I'd love to see it, Webb, while inexorably on the comeback trail, would have to have a huge race here to contend for the win. His 3:36 against Willis was encouraging, and his improvement curve under Salazar has been swift. Still, there's no reason to believe that as talented as Webb is, he can morph into the 3:31-3:32 shape required for the winner in a matter of a few weeks. Anything under 3:52 would be great here. Top 5 would be excellent as well. Webb like Willis will have the advantage of fresher legs and an abrupt season. He will have the huge disadvantage of insufficient training as a result of surgery and injuries.
Odds: 19:1 (5% shot on winning)
Rest of Field:
On the women's side there are bunch of potential spoilers in the field. On the speed side, there is a sub 2 woman in Italian Elisa Cusma Piccone. On the opposide side of the docket, there is 5000 meter American record holder Molly Huddle. Two past winners that I have not mentioned in the field include Sara Hall and Carmen Douma-Hussar. There's a Dibaba sister in the field as well. I wouldn't exactly be surprised if a less-heralded athlete pulls it out in the women's race as the margins between the favorite (Rowbury) and the rest are small and the race is, of course, unpaced.
Overall: 22% shot of someone emerging from here to win it
The men's field also includes last year's champion Andy Baddeley. Baddeley's season so far has been disappointing(medalless at Europeans, no PB's), but the mile has been a good distance for him. The signature victory of his career came in the Oslo dream mile a couple years ago. There are a lot of promising young athletes in the field including Brit Thomas Lancashire and American David Torrence, who first made his mark in track and field through his widely publicized late-night downhill road mile that was conceived on letsrun.com.
Overall: 6% shot of someone emerging from here to win it
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