Things We Learned from the Continental Cup

After nearly four months on the European circuit, we would think we would have a pretty refined, accurate view of the elites on the circuit. Still, when the format subtracts rabbits and inserts even bigger cash prizes based solely on place, in many cases it's like a monkey wrench has been thrown into the mix. Still, for many of the year's top performers like Janeth Jepkosgei and Bernard Lagat, the Continental Cup format provided an opportunity for coronation. Below are some of the things we learned from the Continental Cup:


1. 2007 women's 800m World Champion, Janeth Jepkosgei (right), is back at her best and the favorite to win gold in Daegu. After a consistent but far from dominant campaign, Jepkosgei ended her season with a flourish with two convincing victories over her top two challengers this season, Mariya Savinova and Alysia Johnson. Jepkosgei cleaned up her positioning and tactics by establishing herself directly behind the event's frontrunners on the outside of lane 1. Instead of battling for position in the midst of the more physical and strong runners composing the pack, Jepkosgei wisely chose the last two races to get after the pace and seize control at around 200 meters to go. She boldly ran in front of Savinova and dared her to chase her down. Jepkosgei has never lacked a final burst in the last 100 or the strength to run in the 1:57 range, but she has often got herself boxed and battered around by not manuevering wisely in the early going. Jepkosgei's strategy is also doubly effective against Savinova and other late kickers (Jenny Meadows, for instance) because it forces Savinova and the other to go extra-wide to get around her and the other frontrunners like Johnson and Kenia Sinclair. Adding yet another body to go around in the last 150(typically the range where Savinova kicks), has a huge impact in the 800 where running extra distance at the end is critical. Savinova's kick came up short the last two weeks, and while a dangerous Caster Semenya looms for next year, amongst the contenders to dethrone Semenya, Jepkosgei has finished the year as the clear favorite.

2. There is no View From Lane 9 Picture Jinx. Featured in the picture from my preview, an untroubled Bernard Lagat cruised to two seemingly effortless victories. In the process, Lagat made several medal contenders look like the hapless collegiates and middling pro runners that he methodically crushed at the USA Championships this year. The 5000 meters featured little fight from expected challengers Edwin Soi and Deribe Merga who not only did not push the pace at all, but worse had bad position at the bell behind Lagat. Soi, in particular, had a nice kick at the finish that might have challenged Lagat, but he was so far out of position that he didn't come close to contention. Predictably, unherald Ugandan (just because he's been absent from the circuit) Moses Kipsiro was helpless in the final meters as Lagat put on the finishing touches of a 2:24 kilometer and 51.6 last 400 with a 25.1 last 200. Kipsiro fought, but challenging Lagat to a 400m race after 4600 meters of high-paced jogging is no way to beat the tactical extraordinare. The 3000 offered a better challenge as the Africans used some team tactics and began their hard running in earnest at 600 to go. The slippery Lagat, however, managed to sneak by on the inside past a faltering Tariku Bekele. In the last 100, Bekele swung wide presumably to force Lagat to the outside. That maneuver ended out striking Kipsiro, whose fast finish on the outside netted him second, and not Lagat who opportunistically grabbed the inside and won comfortably. It was a remarkably easy 2 for 2 and unless Kenenisa Bekele is in the 5000 creating a sub 13 race, Lagat looks to be the favorite to win a tactical 5000. Brother Tariku, for all his dominance in the paced time-trial races, does not look capable of solving the puzzle against the wizard, an experienced and seasoned Lagat.


3. Kenyan stalwarts Nancy Langat and Asbel Kiprop are beatable. The two had put up impressive winning streaks in a competitive season of racing, but both of those streaks came to a crashing halt in Split. Langat's race was inexpicable as after following a slow tempo all race her usually reliable kick came up some 30 meters short(quite a ways if you think about it) against France's European silver medalist Hind Debiba (full disclosure: Debiba is a convicted drug cheat who's served her time). Langat's late-race crash resulted in her making some desperate moves as it appears that after tangling arms with Debiba she tried to pull her down by the waist to break her own fall, or worse to ruin Debiba's race. Even before they got tangled, Langat's stride was in trouble. She was having mechanical problems as her movement got somewhat wobbly and decidedly not fluid, as we are accustomed to, in the final stages. Langat's apparent invincibility in slow races has been broken, though the freak-nature-esque appearance of it suggest to me that it is more a hiccup than a trend.


Kiprop, meanwhile led the first 2 laps of the men's 1500 before getting blanketed by the field. Both Kiprop and Leonel Manzano fell victim to the aggressive moves of the immovable European Champion Arturo Casado who passed both and then blocked their way to the front. At the bell, with far better tactical position held by Mekonnen Gebremehdin and Amine Laalou as well as a couple athletes including Manzano and Casado blocking his path, Kiprop packed it in and did not attempt to kick the field down. Manzano, meanwhile did his best, but Casado's move and positioning had dug him into a deep hole that he could not get himself out of. Meanwhile, Gebremehdin and Laalou were away, and Laalou waited until the last 100 to dispatch the still-questionable kick of Gebremehdin. Behind them, Manzano blew away an uninspired finish by his saboteur Arturo Casado. This race brought some of the concerns about Manzano and Kiprop's ability to race in deep, unpaced races back to the forefront. Manzano got pushed around by the pack and was nearly shot off the back after the early pace he closely followed was gobbled up by the field. That is a continuing area of concern for Manzano, who has to keep his kick in striking distance if he is to contend for a medal. Kiprop, also has to be concerned about his ability to run with the pack. He was thrown off his race far too easily by the field's aggressiveness in the middle of the race. Gebremehdin did not alleviate any fears about his last 100 meters finish as he could not change gears against Laalou. Laalou is the key athlete that can leave the race with a smile and even more confidence, as he executed his race perfectly and displayed a strong kick that makes him a medal favorite in Daegu.

4. If Bershawn Jackson breaks from his disciplined step-pattern and race pattern, his race can break down and he becomes eminently more beatable. Jackson was flying early on in his 400m hurdles race. That, by itself is not surprising as Jackson generally run an above-average first 100 meters. What was unsual, though, was Jackson's fast running in the next 150 of his race when he typically slows and relinquishes his lead to the field. This time, Jackson ran more aggressively and swiftly. Perhaps he was hunting a PB or sub 47 mark and believed he needed to relax less during this juncture? Either way, Batman's unbeaten streak was snapped as he tired and mixed up his steps and made a general mess of hurdle ten. If he gets too greedy or just gets tentative and messes with the race formula that has allowed for a stellar 2010, he may revert back to his good, but not great form of 2006-2009. Meanwhile, David Greene had a fine PB of 47.88 that if repeated in a championship final will often be good enough for a medal.

5. David Rudisha is light years away from everyone but Kaki. Alright, I'll acknowledge that this isn't exactly news, but watching Rudisha frontrun and give the Old Yeller treatment to the entire field was some very nice entertainment and further confirmation that the man is in a different stratosphere as far as talent. Rudisha didn't do any wild pacemaking, but rather ran a cruising 1:43.3 with approximate splits( of 24.29/50.84(26.55)/1:16.77(25.93)/1:43.37(26.60). Nobody was close, or more pointedly even bothered to be close, after the first 400(note the midrace 25.93). See, nobody but Rudisha can accelerate there. Anyone that has run an 800 knows that running that third 200 faster than the second is extremely difficult as your legs are burning and the fast first 200 begins to catch up with you. If Rudisha chooses to run 25.xx of faster in the third 200 he figures to have nobody besides maybe Kaki or Mulaudzi within striking distance on him at 200 to go. Rudisha never looked strained, and he crushed the European champion, and a couple of potential finalists by more than a second....What a season! What an athlete!

Other Notes:

Meseret Defar looked very good in an easy win in the 3,000. My only question is: as good as Defar looked can she match up well with countrywoman Tirunesh Dibaba and new queen of the 5,000(and winner in the distance at the Cup) Vivian Cheruiyot? When they all line up, it should be quite the duel.

Poor Wallace Spearmon. In 2007, Spearmon won the bronze medal in Osaka and this year he has had a superior season to that one. Yet, even after this year, he is figured by most people to be the 4'th or 5'th placer at best in a year from now at the World Championships. The 200 has gotten much faster and deeper since 2007 with the emergence of Yohan Blake and Walter Dix and the staggering performances of Usain Bolt and Tyson Gay at the distance.

Lucky Jeremy Wariner. In 2007, Wariner ran the best race of his career to net gold in the 400m in a spectacular 43.45 clocking. This year, he has had a far inferior season to that, yet he finds himself probably an equally big favorite to win the World Champs next year. With the drug suspension of Lashawn Merritt and a general dearth of elite young 400m talent worldwide, Wariner can probably count on winning the 400m comfortably if he runs in the 44.0-44.3 range.

-It's a shame, but there is no video of the steeple online, and I was unable to watch it live.

If you didn't catch any of the races, check universalsports.com for some race videos. Hope everyone had a great Labor Day Weekend!