The Diamond League Season is over, and it is now Dress Rehearsal time for the 2011 World Championships. It is time for athletes to pull on their spikes and jerseys, represent their beloved continents (including the ambiguous "Asia/Pacific" combo continent) and compete in the truest sense- running solely for place. No, it's not the world championships and no, it doesn't feature the best in every event, but the Continental Cup affords us a much-needed break from the tactics-free Diamond League prism of world-record chasing and its less attractive cousin, time-trialing. Mercifully, we should see some, by now quite palatable, sitting-and-kicking, random surging, and courageous front-running. So, without further ado, here is the guide to the best racing that should occur:1. Men's 1500m: All eyes will be on 2008 Olympic Gold medalist Asbel Kiprop as he makes a bid for his eight consecutive victory at the 1500/mile distance. Sans pacemakers, Kiprop's tactics will be fascinating as he attempts to maintain good position while balancing out his reluctance to either run in packs or rabbit the field. Will he create an honest pace and then drop back? Will he try to string out the field from 600 out? Will he play Russian roulette with the field and attempt to navigate the packs and strike at the right moment? The field here is stocked with probable world championships finalists including Mekonnen Gebremehdin, Amine Laalou, Arturo Casado, Leonel Manzano, and World Champion Yusuf Saad Kamel. This should be a nice preview for next year's championship action. Some of my questions for the field behind Kiprop are: Can Gebremehdin kick strongly enough to medal in a championship race? Can Laalou and Manzano get their tactics right and position themselves well in a stacked field? Against a strong field and in a race likely faster than Europeans, can Casado summon a world-class kick? Was Kamel a flash in the pan or is he a perennial contender? While the answers will not be definite from this meet, we should get a nice inkling and some entertaining championship-style racing to boot.
Prediction: 1. Kiprop 2. Laalou 3. Manzano 4. Kamel 5. Gebremehdin
2. Women's 800m: A stacked field features last weeks winner in Brussels, Janeth Jepkosgei against Mariya Savinova, Kenia Sinclair, Alysia Johnson, and Jenny Meadows. The tactics should be pivotal as the race features two pure frontrunners, Johnson and Sinclair. Sinclair looked mighty good the other day in Zagreb winning with a 1:58.62 clocking. Meanwhile, Jepkosgei and Savinova have owned the end of the season, as they've played cat and mouse lurking behind Johnson's aggressive leading at the front. Jepkosgei's best hope is that the race is not overly congested and that she can establish a position for herself near the front. The more bumping and barging, the greater the difficulty she will have against her more physical opponents. Savinova, meanwhile, did not have as strong a kick in Brussels as she had in Zurich. If she can regain that form, her finishing ability and smooth competence at navigating the pack makes her the favorite. Lastly, if the race is slow in this rabbit-free format, Meadows has a reliable kick that could catch the favorites by surprise.
Prediction: 1. Savinova 2. Jepkosgei 3. Sinclair 4. Meadows 5. Johnson
3. Men's 800m: I'm excited to see how David Rudisha plans to toy around with this field. My favorite scenario is him leading the pack through in a pedestrian 53 seconds and then dropping a 25 second 200 to ruthlessly give the field the "Old Yeller" treatment. Either way, barring some miraculous loss of form or something catastrophic, he should romp to victory in a field without Kaki or Lalang. Behind Rudisha, the field is deep and unpredictable with capable kickers like Marcin Lewandowski, Michael Rimmer, Nick Symmonds and Ryan Gregson. The battle between the first three should be fascinating, as all harbor dreams of sneaking in for a bronze medal at a future Championship final. The tactics of Symmonds bear a close watch, as his versatility in positioning himself is always (and rightfully) under scrutiny.
Predictions: 1. Rudisha 2. Symmonds 3. Rimmer
4. Women's 1500m: Dominant event leader Nancy Langat takes on a tough field including Gelete Burka, Lisa Dobriskey, Hind Debiba, Mime Belete, Christin Wurth-Thomas, and Btissam Lakhoud. Tactically, Langat has had a perfect season as she's run out of trouble near the front and perfectly employed a devastating kick to crush her opponents. In London, which also did not have pacemakers, Langat seamlessly adjusted accordingly and won just easily. The battle between the rest of the field will include plenty of physicality and 2009 silver medalist Lisa Dobriskey will have her race made or broken on her ability to set up her kick and not run too much extra distance. Elsewhere, Burka has to avoid impeding others, and will hope to stop her habit of getting too tucked in on the rail that has resulted in some bitter falls. We should get an inkling of the medal shots of the rest of the sub 4 or nearly sub 4 athletes from their results in this race.
Prediction: 1. Langat 2. Burka 3. Dobriskey 4. Lakhoud 5. Debiba
5. Men's 3000m and 5000m: I've chosen to combine these two because a significant protagonist in both is tactical extraordinare Bernard Lagat. He faces a stacked field in both of the races including the man who has defeated him in his last two 3000m races, Tariku Bekele. In the 3000, outside of potential dark horse and spoiler African Championships medalist Vincent Yator, it figures to be a two-man duel. Lagat nearly closed down Bekele with a brilliant kick in Rieti, and he has generally been unmatched in unrabbited 3000 meter races. Then again, Bekele has run confidently from the front and is undefeated in 3 straight highly competitive races. He will likely be given full rein to lead by Lagat and it should be a classic matchup of a kicker versus a strength runner with both at their best. In the 5000, Lagat meets a menacing group of Africans including Diamond League winner Imane Merga, African Champion Edwin Soi, and former World Championships Medalist Moses Kipsiro. A dark horse for the race is steeplechaser Bob Tahri. The pace figures to be much slower than any Diamond League race, and this scenario favors Lagat who in the last two world championships has lost to only one man (Kenenisa Bekele) in these sort of races. Still, Merga has exhibited an excellent sub 55 second last lap kick in many of his races this year and Soi won his African title in a slow race. When the Africans decide to accelarate the pace will be a critical point, and it should come down to a battle of some mighty kicks.
Prediction: 3000- 1. Lagat 2. Bekele 5000- 1. Soi 2. Lagat 3. Merga
Women's 5000m: It's now Sentayehu Ejigu [note: Ejigu replaced Dibaba after the writing of this section] in what should be another unpredictable duel against Vivian Cheruiyot. My money is on Cheruiyot as I think she has proved her superiority to Ejigu head-to-heard in a number of matchups over the year. Cheruiyot has been able to lead from as far as 2000 out, and kick away from Ejigu even as she has done all the work. Here, I expect her to control the latter stages of the race, and marshal her energy well as she has all season. I don't believe anyone besides late pull-out Tirunesh Dibaba has the ability to contend with Cheruiyot's kick and frontrunning.
Prediction 1. Cheruiyot 2. Ejigu
Men's Steeple: Frenchman Mahiedine Benabbad is the favorite against a field of strong Africans including multi-time Championship medalist Richard Mateelong, Benjamin Kiplagat, and Roba Gari. The pace could very well end out slow without pacemakers or de-facto one Paul Koech, and Benabbad who just ran an impressive 8:02 should be able to rely on his strong last-lap finish to dispatch the field. Kiplagat is an emerging talent, and if he can pull off an upset he will stamp himself as a contender in years to come. For American fans, this is a pivotal race for Daniel Huling who must show that he is capable of competing with athletes of this caliber if he is ever to be more than just an afterthought in Championships.
Prediction: 1. Benabbad 2. Kiplagat 3. Mateelong
Women's 3000m: If ever there was a race that displayed the quirky intersection of 1500 runners and 5000/10000 runners that takes place in a 3000, this is it. The distance powerhouse Sentayehu Ejigu [after the writing, she replaced Meseret Defar] takes on some of the best of the world's 1500 corps in Shannon Rowbury and Anna Alminova. Ejigu will be on the double, and this race should be a good test of her speed and finishing ability. Alminova and Rowbury, meanwhile, do not have blistering kicks in their primary event and have had good success one event up. They are both "strength milers" and do not have world-class 800 speed like some of their competitors. Ejigu can try a few things here as the strongest athlete, including a prolonged kick or a hard pace from the gun, but she might trust her kick from 400 meters out. Rowbury and Alminova should focus on timing their kicks well and staying on the shoulder of Ejigu if she includes some surges or hard frontrunning. Without pacemakers, this one should start out quite slow and whether Alminova continues her frontrunning ways or is more patient will be a critical question.
Prediction: 1. Ejigu 2. Rowbury 3. Alminova
Headliners in Sprints/Relays
Most of the stars are missing in the 400 down, but there are a few stars who remain;
In the men's 400m hurdles, Bershawn Jackson seeks to put the cherry on the top of a dominant 2010 season. The usual gang of David Greene, Javier Culson will try to leave him with a bitter taste.
The women's 400 features Debbie Dunn, Tatyana Firova, and Shericka Williams.
In the men's 200 and 400, American stars Wallace Spearmon and Jeremy Wariner go against lackluster fields.
The women's 100m hurdles does not include DL winner Lopes-Schliep, but does have Sally Pearson, Lolo Jones, and Perdita Felicien.
The David Oliver Show will roll on in the 110m hurdles as the pursuit of the World Record will continue.
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