Road Rash: Kenyan and Ethiopian Men Continue to Demolish All-time Lists

There have been many theories and guesses for why sub 27 10,000 meter runs and sub 12:50 5,000 runs are on the decline: Might it be the effectiveness of the new EPO test? The presence of inferior pacemaking? The retirement of a few doped athletes? An unavoidable cyclical down period after the great talents of Haile Gebresalassie, Paul Tergat and Daniel Komen? Those three and the other Kenyans and Ethiopians of the mid to late 1990s hit astonishing marks and rewrote the all time track and field record books in a revolutionary fashion . Now, the view is there must be something (for cynics, a pharmacological something) behind it, as the times remain out there only challenged by Kenenisa Bekele. At face value, it is unmistakable that today's Kenyan and Ethiopian distance runners are not matching the great achievements of their predecessors.

The funny thing about the whole discussion is, well....

They are. It's just that the surface of choice has, almost overnight, switched from forgiving mondo to punishing asphalt. In a trend that began in the early 2000s and has accelerated markedly in the mid to late 2000s, youthful Ethiopian and Kenyan prodigies have flocked to the money-rich road-racing scene as opportunities and payouts in track 10,000s have dried out in Europe. Road races offer generous appearance fees (guaranteed money- a huge plus) and prize money that have attracted a horde of East Africa's best. There are some remarkable stats evidencing this movement.

Sub 2:06 Marathons before 2002: 0
Sub 2:06 Marathons in the last 2 years: 27 (all by Kenyans and Ethiopians)

The numbers in the half marathon (26 of the top 27 perfomances are from the last 5 years) and the road 10K are similar in the startling quantity that have been run in the last five years.

This, on the surface(pun intended), is pretty incredible, but the specific changes that perpetuate the move are even more striking. Marathoning is no longer an old man's game. In the early 2000s, 30+ year olds Tergat and Gebresalassie were the icons behind the rewriting of the road's record books. After incredible careers on the track, the two (intertwined by their epic Olympic 10,000m race in Sydney) rode off not into the sunset, but instead into the lucrative and ripe for the picking road racing scene. Now, Gebresalassie who is still remarkably competitive at his craft is joined not by other 30 years olds who have had enough of 3000s and 5000s, but young Kenyans and Ethiopians who have eschewed track altogether.

As prodiguous 21 and 22 year olds, phenomenal Kenyan talents and world top 5 marathoners Patrick Makau and Samuel Wanjiru were running sub 59 half marathons, and preparing for careers of marathoning. Wanjiru is perfectly illustrative of the new breed of marathoners and half marathoners. Wanjiru is the world junior record-holder in the 10,000 with a 26:41 clocking that would make him a medal favorite in every world championships. The lure of greater glory and massive paydays led him to the roads over what would likely have been an illustrious career on the oval. Amongst the other consensus top 10 marathoners is Ethiopian Tsegay Kebede who ran 2:06:10 as a 21 year old, and 2010 Boston course record holder, Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot, who ran a stunning 2:05:52 in Boston at age 21. Undoubtedly, almost all could have made a significant impact in the track world, but they chose to immediately hit the roads.

This influx of the best distance talent that East Africa has to offer has radically shifted the landscape of distance running. This year, there were no major 10,000 meter races in Europe. If it wasn't for the obscure Josphat Menjo and his solo turn, there would have been no Kenyans or Ethiopians under 27 minutes on the track in a non-championship year. Strikingly, the highest quality 10,000 meter races of the year were probably the African Championships and Kenyan Championships. It is revealing that coach Renato Canova's charges who dominated the event were, in fact, marathoners and half marathoners opportunistically throwing in a little more specific training to succeed in the event. This weekend displayed again that the extraordinary Kenyan and Ethiopian talent remains, and in fact may be as good as ever.

First, as you probably garnered from the picture above, there was a World record in the road 10KM. The old record was 27:01 and choose your verb, but Leonard Komon (demolished/smashed/destroyed/Old Yeller'ed) that record with a staggering 26:44. There was no pacing and the course is, of course, not perfectly flat like a track. Komon had previously made his greatest mark in cross country with a narrow defeat to Bekele in the senior World Cross Country race in 2008. His 26:44 clocking, however, is simply an eye-popping performance. Moreover, Komon crushed Sammy Kitwara by 27 seconds. Kitwara is one of only 6 sub 59 minute half marathon performers himself, and one of the best distance runners on the planet. He vanquished Haile Gebresalasse last year in a half marathon, and it's worth noting that Paul Tergat at his best ran 59:06 in 2000- still near the prime of his career. Kitwara is the perfect example of the changing incentives and aspirations of young Kenyans and Ethiopians. Kitwara was, in fact, dismissed from the Kenyan 10,000 meter squad last year for running too many lucrative American road races in the summer. Overall, Komon's performance very well is one of the greatest of all time and on par with the sub 26:35 10,000 meter performances of the mid to late 1990s.

Elsewhere, the Berlin Marathon saw three Ethiopians and Kenyans ran 2:05:25 or faster. If that isn't impressive enough, the day was rainy and the conditions were thus far from ideal. In the race, the aforementioned Patrick Makau won an exciting stretch duel against countryman Geoffrey Mutai 2:05:08 to 2:05:10. Their finishing order mimicked an earlier duel in Rotterdam where Makau prevailed 2:04:48 to 2:04:55. The absurdity of losing while finishing in the 2:05 neighborhood is matched by the fact that just filling out the podium in Berlin was 22 year old Ethiopian Bado Worku who ran 2:05:25. To put that in perspective not one person in the history of mankind had run under 2:06:50 until 1999.

The young Ethiopian and Kenyan talent that now rules the road-racing world reveals one thing: If you want to find the best distance talent in the world, you better get off track.