The Three Comebacks: Webb, Willis, and Kamel

If you looked at the seasonal bests and ignored the names on the start list, the 1500 in Milan at the end of last week would seem to be at best a "B" level race for the equivalent of the pro circuit's weekend warriors. A glance at the names and the corresponding pedigrees of some of the athletes, however, revealed a race lineup with intrigue and some potential impact on the upcoming three years of global championships.


At each athlete's best, the Milan 1500 featured the 2009 Berlin World Championsips 1500 gold medalist, the 2008 Olympic silver medalist, and for most a "shoulda" been medalist in the 2007 World leader in both the mile and 1500. These accomplishments and career peaks belong to the three prominent race entrants: Yusuf Saad Kamel, Nick Willis, and Alan Webb. All have struggled with injuries that have protracted their seasons, and cast considerable doubt over their prospects of challenging the stars that have shone in their absence: Silas Kiplagat, Amine Laalou, Mekonnen Gebremehdin, Asbel Kiprop. If you look solely at the results, the times appear to be run-of-the-mill, but each of the three (with the possible exception of Kamel who ran faster in Rieti) left the race pleased and excited for the rest of 2010 and the 2011 season after that.


I'll have more of a summing up of the Webb campaign when it culminates in the 5'th Avenue Mile in a few weeks, but obviously the obituaries that were being written for his career after his 1:52 800m were premature. There is a deep reservoir of cynicism that resolves around Webb, which does not extend to a guy like Willis, let alone the under-the-radar champion Kamel. No doubt a lot of it has to do with Webb's disappointments at major spots after he shows promise that creates unrealistic hopes for some fans (the buzzkill performances at the 2005 and 2007 World Championships being the primary examples). After being let down, the tendency for many fans is to write off Webb prematurely and unfairly, so as not to be fooled again. There is resentment from the more rational fans who didn't expect as much out of Webb and were alienated by the excessive hype and unrealistic predictions that followed every positive performance. They too feel comfortable and justified from past experience in declaring Webb finished as a medal contender on short notice.


The other side of the coin, however, is that as soon as Webb reveals some of his extraordinary talent like he did with this 3:36, a new bandwagon appears immediately and giddy followers begin predicting and, more strikingly, expecting great things. A 3:36 is only a 3:36, but there are some further positives in the Webb saga that can be seen in the video and his interviews. First, he looks thinner. Right now, it'd be much harder to nitpick him for carrying unnecessary extra muscle than in the past, as the Salazar slimming-down regimen has kicked in successfully. Second, he hung in with a reasonably fast pace and ran strongly and calmly from the back of the pack. At least for this race, Alan Webb's oft-criticized "tactical mind" was a non-factor as Webb seemed to squeeze almost everything out of his body. He resisted both giving in to the pain of a fast pace or worse making a rash, but regrettable move to get to the front too early in the race. Third, Salazar's training and philosophy have meshed well with Webb and Webb seems almost giddy about his fresh start: http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view_video/237340-adventures-in-europe-2010/355027-alan-webb-after-336-milan . Webb has had a short spurt of time to work with Salazar and has made several major adjustments. The impressive improvement curve that he is currently engaged in is quite encouraging for next year when he will be fully acclimated and, health permitting, will have a full build-up to the World Championships.


Overall, my perspective on Webb's, Willis', and Kamel's runs is that they should be interpreted primarily as confirmations first and foremost of their extraordinary natural talent. All of these guys have not been training at a high level for an adequate amount of time. Willis' first time on the track was only about a month before Milan and he barely broke 4 minutes for the mile shortly after that. Webb was running a "mile a day" in June and struggling to keep up with Galen Rupp for fractions of his speed workouts until August. He only touched under 4 minute mile pace on the track (even for 200s) late in July. Meanwhile, Kamel has spent most season either DNF'ing or running non-competitively with the over-their-head locals that meet organizers toss into the back end of their races. All of these guys could now torch the month-old versions of themselves. They could also beat a whole host of professional athletes not as precociously gifted, even given their limited training. As much as us less-talented runners(apologies to the 3:29 1500 guys reading this) would like to think that it's not all about talent, at the elite 1500 level you better be able to run 3:36 off of 6 weeks training, and that takes pretty sick, unteachable talent.

A sport that is as measurable as track can tend to lead to some confounding results when an athlete is injured, sick or returning from injury. A 1:52 800 simply looks terrible for a 1:43 guy like Webb ditto a 3:59 for a 3:48 talent like Willis. If you don't know the full context (or even if you do) it's not like basketball where a star player can get 15 points or baseball where an ailing player can go 0 for 4 and it won't make waves. In track, healthy athletes run within 2 or 3 seconds of their PB and anything else causes a big stink. The talent, however, does not go away and if/when the injury issues are gone, a steady block of training will reveal it almost without exception. A reminder of this was in 2007 when Bernard Lagat was having a dreadful season due to a stomach ailment. Only about a month before the World Championships, Lagat got over the stomach issue and went into Osaka with a clean bill of health and still one of the greatest combinations of tactical ability and talent that he posseses. In spite of a year running 3:35s and worse, he became the only man to ever win the 1500/5000 championship double. The comebacks of Webb, Willis and Kamel all seem to be going according to plan and with their considerable talent, the times are almost irrelevant as long as they get healthy and have plenty of time to regain their fitness (10-11 months is more than enough).

For Webb and Willis, the next steppingstone will be the Fifth Avenue Mile where they will be tested against a loaded field that includes guys like Lagat, Amine Laalou, and Leonel Manzano. Coincidentally, both Willis and Webb won the event to cap the best seasons of their careers in 2008 and 2007, respectively. With two and a half more weeks of training for the two, it seems the race will be ripe for them to take advantage against a bunch of guys who have endured much longer and grueling seasons.